10 February 2016

Internet power to the people

February 10, 2016

The Hindu"I am convinced that Facebook and their ad agencies completely underestimated the Indian public." Picture shows protests in Hyderabad against Facebook’s campaign. 

TRAI’s vigorous endorsement of net neutrality safeguards the Internet against platform monopolies, retaining the ability for users not only to be consumers but also creators of content

The regulations issued by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)barring differential pricing of data based on content have created a global impact. A friend, who runs a major international software company, called it the most important victory for the people in the tech space in the last 20 years. India has joined a select few countries that have protected net neutrality and barred zero-rating services.

What makes this “victory” even more surprising was the complete asymmetry of the two sides involved. On one side was Facebook, a company whose market cap is greater than the GDPs of 144 countries, allied with a bunch of big telecom companies (telcos). They had already “won” easy victories for their platform in a number of countries, and felt India would be no exception. They had an ad campaign that estimates put at Rs.400 crore. On the other side was a motley group of free software and Internet activists, with unlikely allies such as comedy group AIB, a bunch of start-ups, and some political figures and formations.

India, Thailand Talk Defense During Vice President Visit

February 09, 2016

India and Thailand discussed opportunities to broaden their defense and security cooperation during a historic visit by India’s vice president to the Southeast Asian state last week.

As I wrote for The Diplomat last month, Indian vice-president Hamid Ansari was set to visit Thailand from February 3 to February 5. Ansari’s visit to the kingdom was the first by an Indian vice-president in 50 years (See: “India’s Vice-President to Visit Thailand, Brunei in February”).

The focus of much of the visit was on security and defense ties, including counterterrorism and maritime security cooperation. That is no surprise since the two countries have been looking to bolster their defense relationship in several areas over the past few years.

“There is tremendous potential for enhancing our bilateral defense ties,” Ansari said in a February 4 speech on India, Thailand and ASEAN at the prominent Chulalongkorn University.

India and Thailand already have a series of bilateral defense interactions in place, including regular joint exercises, office training and exchanges at various levels as outlined in a memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation back in January 2012.

What to Expect from US-India Relations in 2016

By Kanwal Sibal
February 09, 2016

India-U.S. ties have been transformed in recent years, best exemplified with the newly declared global strategic partnership between the two countries. Yet, what is the reality of the partnership in terms of achievements on the ground? And, what could be the future expectations?

For starters, the United States’ Pakistan policy remains a problematic issue. The objective of the two countries to advance regional security together is impeded by the continuation of U.S. military aid to Pakistan. This is done through presidential waivers to overcome the provisions of the Kerry-Lugar legislation, which requires Pakistan to act verifiably against terrorist groups on its soil before U.S. aid can be released.

Furthermore, the United States does not consider the Taliban as a terrorist organization. The U.S. is, in reality, engaged in an effort to accommodate the Taliban politically in Afghanistan in a Pakistan-brokered deal, which is a risk to India’s security. It is thus difficult to see how, in these circumstances, the counter-terrorism partnership between India and the U.S. can be a defining one for the 21st century.

“Yemen on its Knees”: Viewing Houthi Insurgency through a Terror Prism

By Anant Mishra
09 Feb , 2016

Introduction

In the past couple of months, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia, the richest country in the Arabian Peninsula, has been bombing major cities of Yemen, the poorest Gulf country. There is no shortage of conflict in the Middle East and Yemen has become its newest victim. The Saudis are receiving enormous pressure from West to decrease the aggressiveness in their attacks on the cities, which has consumed lives of over 4000 civilians at this time. Instead of moulding bending themselves under this international pressure, the Saudi’s have strengthened their command over this issue and have promised to resolve this by crushing the Iranian backed Houthi rebels.

On 14th July, the coalition took and overdrive and invaded the major Yemeni port of Aden. This operation was backed by coalition aircrafts and were manned by a group of people who were loyal to the exiled government, followed by extensive support of Saudi and Emirati commandos, were able to recapture Yemen’s second largest city from the grip of Houthi rebels. This was just a glimpse of what was to come. On August 2nd, French Leclerc main battle tanks, Russian BMD-3 armed personnel carriers, and American mine-resistant troop carriers landed along with a 3000-strong combined Saudi and UAE infantry division at Aden and immediately began to push northwards towards the al-Anad military base. Although this impressive and powerful show of strength was supported by tribal fighters who were sympathetic to the exiled government led by Mr. Hadi, and it came under no surprise that these powerful show of weaponry were operated by professionals.

Chinks in the armour - The military leadership's mindset has to be 'de-bureaucratized'

Brijesh D. Jayal 

As the festivities marking the end of the nation's 67th Republic Day drew to an end, one was left not with a spirit of bounden pride as one recalled during one's younger days but with a feeling of mixed emotions. The solemn ceremony with the prime minister along with the three service chiefs paying homage at the Amar Jawan Jyoti is a moment of collective reflection and a befitting beginning to the celebrations. Befitting, because it also signifies an umbrella of unlimited liability provided by the individual soldier, sailor and airman that assures the nation security for continued progress. One does wonder, however, if in those two minutes of homage, the prime minister heard the silent plea of the martyrs reminding him of his party's grand electoral promise to give to them a permanent memorial of their own.

Mumbai attackers made two earlier attempts: Headley

February 9, 2016

David Headley joined LeT and took his first “course” with them in 2002 at Muzaffarabad, Pakistan. File photo 


Public prosecutor Ujwal Nikam talking to media outside sessions court after video conference with 26/11 accused David Headley. Photo: Vivek Bendre 

In an important turn in the 2008 Mumbai attacks trial, Lashkar operative David Headley named Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief and 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed as the head of the Lashkar-e-Taiba. During his deposition on Monday before a special court here via videoconferencing from the U.S., he identified Pakistani Army officers associated with the ISI.

Lashkar handlers Saeed and Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi had also been named by Ajmal Kasab, the Pakistani gunman who was executed for his role in 26/11, in his confession statement in 2008. However, he retracted his confession in court.

Afghanistan to Start Peace Talks With Taliban By the End of February

February 08, 2016

High level diplomats from four countries met over the weekend in Islamabad to discuss ending the war in Afghanistan. The meeting, hosted by the Government of Pakistan, was the third time that the so-called Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) of Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States and China convened discussing the Afghan peace and reconciliation process.

According to an Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs press release, the representatives of the QCG countries—Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai; Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry; U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard G. Olson; and China’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Ambassador Deng Xijun—expect talks between the Afghan government and Taliban groups to take place by the of February 2016.

“[T]he QCG countries agreed to continue joint efforts for setting a date for direct peace talks between the representatives of the Afghan government and Taliban groups expected to take place by the end of February 2016.” However, Ahmad Shekib Mustaghni, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified that merely the date for peace talks will be finalized by the end of February 2016.

Tempering Saudi-Iran rivalry and the role of Pakistan

By Prateek Joshi
09 Feb , 2016

The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has got more complex with the revival of Saudi-Iran tensions. While tensions have simmered between these two nations for long, what caused their lingering enmity to snowball into a face off were Iran’s alleged support to Syria’s Bashar al Assad regime, Saudi airstrikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen. 

Further intensifying a sense of mutual hostility was the negotiation of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in which the P5+1 powers reached an amicable solution with the Iranian leadership, getting the latter out of decades of global isolation. Tensions had begun to emerge when the deal allowed Iran to curb its nuclear program (and not eliminating it), thus feeding into Saudi insecurities. All of this took an even uglier turn as successive dampeners unfolded with the latest ones being the death of hundreds of Iranian Hajj pilgrims in a stampede at Mecca in 2015 and the execution of a Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr-al-Nimr by Saudi authorities in January 2016. The reaction to the latter came in the form of arson attacks on Saudi embassy in Tehran, following which Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies cut their diplomatic ties with Iran.

Key Sangin District in Afghanistan’s Helmand Province on the Verge of Falling to the Taliban and Kabul Doesn’t Seem to Care

Justin Rowlatt and Mahfouz Zubaide 
February 7, 2016

Sangin ‘on verge of falling back into Afghan Taliban hands’

The key district of Sangin in the southern Afghan province of Helmand is once again on the verge of being overrun by the Taliban, according to an Afghan army commander.

The commander, who wishes to remain anonymous, told the BBC that most of the district had already been taken.

He said the Afghan government now controls just a few square kilometres of Sangin city.

The Afghan army and local governor’s office dismissed the claims.

A spokesman for the Helmand governor acknowledged there had been security problems in the past but said there was no “serious threat” that could lead to the fall of Sangin.

The unnamed commander warned that even the remaining areas under government control were under imminent threat.

China’s grand strategy, India’s great dilemma


China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ strategy holds immense significance for India

The spectacular rise of China has been arguably the most important geopolitical development of the past three-and-a-half decades. The concomitant changes in the strategic behaviour of Beijing have forced major powers around the world to take notice, resist, adapt and adjust. After studying the history of the past 500 years, Prof. Graham Allison of Harvard Kennedy School sets the record straight: of the past 16 instances when a rising power has challenged a ruling power, 12 have ended in war. Avoiding a war between the US and China, therefore, will require—according to Allison—“nothing short of bending the arc of history”. To be sure, the prospects of a US-China face-off seem slightly overhyped despite Allison’s warnings. But the significance of China’s rise and its fallout cannot be overstated.

In recent years, China has grown far more assertive in its maritime boundary claims in the East and South China Seas. Partly owing to the slow pace of reforms in international financial institutions and partly to excess capacity at home, Beijing has taken the lead in creating new financial institutions. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has produced fissures between the US and some of its European and Asian allies. China is also leading efforts to form a New Development Bank (NDB) along with India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa and an SCO bank along with members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. But one of its most important steps to make the “Chinese dream” a reality is its “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative.

After North Korea Rocket Launch, China Pushes Back Against THAAD

February 09, 2016

In official statements and media commentaries, China keeps making the case against THAAD.
North Korea conducted a rocket launch on February 7, a day before the beginning of the February 8-25 timeframe it had originally provided for the launch. With diplomats from around the world scrambling to come up with a unified response, South Korea and the United States have already decided on one bilateral move: formally beginning talks over the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. That, in turn, has reignited hand wringing in China about the threat THAAD poses to Chinese national security.

In fact, official statements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on THAAD deployment were more severe than its statements responding to the North Korean launch. Spokesperson Hua Chunying said China had “noted” and “regrets” the launch; meanwhile, in a separate statement, Hua said China was “deeply concerned” about the start of THAAD talks. Deploying THAAD in South Korea “will not help maintain regional peace and stability, nor will it lead to a proper settlement of the current situation,” Hua cautioned.

‘Sword Of Damocles’ Hangs Over Asia

February 08, 2016


Worries over another Chinese currency devaluation are hanging over financial markets “like the Sword of Damocles,” while Japan is also fighting to keep its currency low to save Abenomics. Can Asia ride out the storm?

As Chinese financial markets paused for the Lunar New Year, market watchers were speculating on just how far the Chinese renminbi may fall in 2016, and its implications for the global economy.

According to Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), uncertainty over Beijing’s intentions has left markets floundering.

“Since 2016 began, the prospect of a major devaluation of China’s renminbi has been hanging over global markets like the Sword of Damocles. No other source of policy uncertainty has been as destabilizing,” he wrotein Project Syndicate.

How the Soviet Union and China Almost Started World War III

February 9, 2016

Americans tend to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis as the most dangerous moment in Cold War brinksmanship. Despite some tense moments, Washington and Moscow resolved that crisis with only the death of U.S. Air Force pilot Maj. Rudolph Anderson Jr.

Seven years later, in March 1969, a contingent of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers raided a Soviet border outpost on Zhenbao Island, killing dozens and injuring scores. The incident brought Russia and China to the brink of war, a conflict that might have led to the use of nuclear weapons. But after two weeks of clashes, the conflict trailed off.


What if the brief 1969 conflict between China and the Soviet Union had escalated?

History

The incident on Zhenbao Island, where the initial ambush and the bulk of the fighting occurred, represented the nadir of Soviet-Chinese relations. Just ten years earlier, Beijing and Moscow had stood hand in hand as bulwarks of the Communist world. Struggles over ideology, leadership and resources, however, resulted in a sharp split between the allies that had global repercussions. The split exacerbated territorial disputes that had existed since Tsarist and Imperial times. The long, poorly demarcated border left numerous gray zones in which China and the USSR both claimed sovereignty.

Was the Iran Deal a Victory For Realism?

February 9, 2016

Although 2016 just started, it will clearly go down in history as the year that saw the lifting of international sanctions against Iran. What happens next, however, is still unclear in many ways. How much oil will Iran deliver? What will be the Iran deal’s effect on the U.S. presidential elections? Will the bloodshed in Syria stop? How heavily were the American-Israeli relations damaged? Is it the beginning of the end for ISIS? Who won? Who lost?

Among all these significant questions there is another, no less important: Does the Iran deal represent a change in American foreign policy thinking? Or, in other words, was this deal a mere flash of foreign policy realism after several decades of ideological dominance, or is a major change under way?

Dealing With Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program

February 8, 2016

Building on the momentum from the successful pursuit of the nuclear deal with Iran, the P5+1 should now combine pressure and diplomacy to deal with Iran’s missile program.

Missiles became an essential component of Iran’s military posture during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, in which Iran received intensive Iraqi missile and air bombardments. Tehran started to build a missile arsenal because it could not get technical support for its largely U.S.-made modern aircraft. Over the years, Iran acquired Soviet-made or copied missiles from North Korea, Libya and Syria.

Although Iran today has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, both Saudi Arabia and Israel have substantial missile programs and had deployed longer-range missiles before Iran. Moreover, Israel is believed to arm its longer-range missiles with nuclear warheads.

The low accuracy of Iran’s missiles has limited their military utility. More recently Iran appears to be placing a priority on accuracy over range—most logical if Iran’s paths to nuclear warheads are blocked by its agreement to last July’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and if it has no intention to engage in long-distance nuclear terrorism.

Expansionist Designs of ISIS

By Maj Gen Afsir Karim
09 Feb , 2016

ISIS has clearly declared its intentions of formal expansion into the notional region of ‘Khorasan’ that includes Afghanistan-Pakistan and large parts of India, including Kashmir. ISIS has been active in Af-Pak in the recent past. It claimed responsibility for attacks on Ismaili Shias in Pakistan, and in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan, it has been successful in luring hundreds of young Taliban militants to lend support to it. Meanwhile, many Sunni Muslim outfits of Af-Pak are reported to be encouraging youth in large numbers to fight along with ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

…ISIS is now actively seeking to expand its operations in South Asia, it may soon try to establish a firmer foothold in Af-Pak.

ISIS appears to be making overt and covert appeals to Pakistani jihadi groups to join its fight against ‘the infidels’, but so far, there is no known formal link between ISIS and any major jihadi group in Pakistan. However, as ISIS is now actively seeking to expand its operations in South Asia, it may soon try to establish a firmer foothold in Af-Pak. Despite a measure of support and concerted efforts to expand links in Af-Pak, ISIS will not be able to seize territory in the region in the foreseeable future. ISIS is, however, likely to blow up areas it is unable to capture, and in these circumstances, Af-Pak may face multiple terror attacks of the kind ISIS has launched in France and Mali.

ISIS Fighters Seizing Oil Fields and Processing Facilities in Libya

Brian Bennett and W.J. Hennigan
February 8, 2016

Islamic State-linked fighters seizing oil-rich land in Libya

As Islamic State forces lose ground in Iraq and Syria, fighters loyal to the group have seized territory in oil-rich Libya, levying taxes at gunpoint and creating sanctuaries to launch possible attacks in North Africa and Europe, U.S. officials say.

The Pentagon has sent special operations teams to gather intelligence and launched at least one airstrike. But the White House so far has resisted calls from some senior aides to escalate the U.S. military role in another Muslim country to counter the potential threat.

Spy satellites and reconnaissance drones have shown the militants building fortifications around Surt, on the central Mediterranean coast and on training bases for foreign fighters farther inland, the officials said.

A U.S. intelligence estimate this week concluded that Islamic State has attracted more than 5,000 fighters in Libya, double the official estimate last fall, making it the extremist group’s largest and most potent affiliate outside Syria and Iraq.

Islamic State threatens to gain a “stranglehold” in Libya and potential “access to billions of dollars of oil revenue,” Secretary of State John F. Kerry warned, one of several alarms the administration has raised in recent days.

America’s ISIS War Is Helping Al Qaeda


U.S. intelligence and defense officials are increasingly worried their fight against the self-declared Islamic State is benefitting al Qaeda, ISIS’s jihadi rival.

U.S. strikes against the self-proclaimed Islamic State have had an unintended beneficiary: al Qaeda.

Al Qaeda has exploited the strikes and gained strength, and that has created a growing rift within U.S. national security circles about where the coalition should aim its strikes. Some American intelligence and defense officials and counterterrorism experts are worried that the intense focus on defeating ISIS has blinded the U.S. to the resurgence of al Qaeda, whose growing potency has become more apparent as ISIS becomes weaker.

The American air campaign has notably not targeted al Qaeda in Syria, known as Jabhat al Nusra. With its foe, ISIS, under daily coalition bombardment, al Qaeda has been thriving, continuing to re-align itself with local forces, and re-emerging as the world’s enduring terror group.

“Now, al Nusra Front and [ISIS] don’t get along… I guess you could say to the extent that we’re weakening [ISIS], maybe it benefits al Nusra Front,” Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, the top U.S. commander in the war against ISIS, conceded in a recent briefing with reporters.

Syria Peace Talks ‘Paused’ After Putin’s Triumph In Aleppo – OpEd

FEBRUARY 7, 2016

“This is the beginning of the end of jihadi presence in Aleppo. After 4 years of war and terror, people can finally see the end in sight.” — Edward Dark, Twitter, Moon of Alabama

A last ditch effort to stop a Russian-led military offensive in northern Syria ended in failure on Wednesday when the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) backed by the National Defense Forces (NDF) and heavy Russian air cover broke a 40-month siege on the villages of Nubl and al-Zahra in northwestern Aleppo province. The Obama administration had hoped that it could forestall the onslaught by cobbling together an eleventh-hour ceasefire agreement at the Geneva peace talks. But when the news that Syrian armored units had crashed through al Nusra’s defenses and forced the jihadists to retreat, UN envoy Staffan de Mistura suspended the negotiations tacitly acknowledging that the mission had failed.

“I have indicated from the first day that I won’t talk for the sake of talking,” the envoy told reporters, saying he needed immediate help from international backers led by the United States and Russia, which are supporting opposite sides of a war that has also drawn in regional powers.” (Reuters) De Mistura then announced a “temporary pause” in the stillborn negotiations which had only formally begun just hours earlier. Developments on the battlefield had convinced the Italian-Swedish diplomat that it was pointless to continue while government forces were effecting a solution through military means.

South Korea’s Bluff on Pyongyang’s Rocket Launch

February 08, 2016

Ahead of North Korea’s widely condemned rocket launch on Sunday, South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense threatened to shoot down the projectile if it approached its territory.

“The military is strengthening its air defense posture to intercept the North Korean missile or its debris that could fall on our land or in our waters,” ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told media on February 4.

Ultimately, the rocket didn’t enter South Korean airspace and Seoul was never called to make good on its vow. In reality, however, it probably couldn’t have even it wanted to. Seoul made an empty threat, weapons experts told The Diplomat, because its missile defense system is incapable of intercepting the type of long-range rocket that was launched by Pyongyang.

South Korea’s military had said it had readied Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) surface-to-air missiles, and could call upon the United States Forces Korea to deploy its PAC-3 missiles if necessary.

But George Lewis, an analyst at the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at Cornell University, said the missile defense systems had ranges in the tens of kilometers, making them little use against Pyongyang’s rocket.

The Great Reversal: Obama's Military Buildup

February 9, 2016

When Jimmy Carter came into office, he was determined to reverse the growth in defense spending that had been bequeathed to his administration by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. In particular, he tried to make good on his campaign promise by rescinding funds for a new aircraft carrier. Congress overturned his recission, but Carter persisted with his efforts to limit defense spending, in line with his view that the United States had other international security priorities, such as intensifying its pursuit of détente, achieving a further reduction of its nuclear arsenal as part of a SALT II agreement and limiting its foreign military sales to allies and friends.

It took the overthrow of the Shah and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to force Carter and his close circle of advisors to concede that Zbigniew Brzezinski, his national security advisor, and Harold Brown, his secretary of defense, had been justified in calling for a harder line against the Soviets and a much more robust defense budget. Accordingly, by the time he left office, Carter had approved an increase in defense spending that would have been unimaginable just two years earlier, and that provided the foundation for the massive buildup that took place under Ronald Reagan and Caspar Weinberger.

End America's 'Strategic Patience' With North Korea

February 9, 2016

Despite its isolation, despite its poverty, despite breathless international condemnations, North Korea marches ever closer to fielding a functioning intercontinental ballistic missile. More troubling, Pyongyang is also making progress in miniaturizing a nuclear weapon to put atop such an ICBM, even as its collection of bombs grows.

And so Kim Jong-un, a thirty-something enigma with less than a decade of leadership experience of any kind, may soon control a small nuclear arsenal with which he can target the United States. Already last April, Adm. William Gortney, head of both Northern Command and NORAD, was warning that North Korea had “the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 [road-mobile missile] and shoot it at the homeland. We assess that it’s operational today.”

The Obama administration has exercised a policy of “strategic patience” vis-à-vis the North over the past seven years. Then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, insisting he was “tired of buying the same horse twice,” was right to approach renewed negotiations with North Korea with wariness. But strategic patience has amounted to strategic folly. Patience was always an odd approach to take with a regime responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of its own people, prone to violent outbursts and intent on developing the means to drop a nuke on Los Angeles.

Why It Is So Hard to Capture Terrorists Before They Attack

David Wise
February 8, 2016

Why it’s so hard to root out terrorists before they strike

The mass shooting in San Bernardino, California, shooting brought home the challenging problems of detecting home-grown jihadists in the United States.

Syed Farook lived an outwardly normal life, under the radar of intelligence and law enforcement. He was born in the United States, and held a good job in the local government. His wife, Tashfeen Malik, entered the country under a valid fiancé visa. The guns they used to kill 14 people and wound 22 others were purchased by a friend. Farook had done nothing to lead his co-workers and neighbors to suspect him.

The FBI said it was investigating the massacre as “an act of terrorism” and that the couple had been “radicalized for some time.”

This massacre offers a virtual textbook example of the problem. Washington faces a formidable task in ferreting out and catching jihadists who live in the United States. All the high-tech tools of government surveillance are of little use if a terrorist does little to draw attention.

NATO Interoperability In Greater Middle East And Invocation Of Article 4 – Analysis

By Mehmet Bildik* 
FEBRUARY 8, 2016


Turkey Air Force F-4E 2020 Terminator at the 3rd Air Force Base in Konya. Photo: SAC Helen Farrer RAF Mobile News Team/MOD, Wikipedia Commons.

Since the Syrian Civil War broke out, the Turkmen population of Syria has been suppressed by military actions of Syrian government forces and has looked to Turkey for support and protection. Most Turkmens in Syria live in areas around the northern Euphrates River basin near Aleppo and in scattered villages across central Syria. After Turkey shot down Russian Su-24 bomber over an area sprinkled with Turkmens camps, Turkey declared, “No one can legitimate attacks on Turkmen in Syria using the pretext of fighting DAESH”, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS. Russian has now created its own virtual “no-fly-zone” in Syria since 30 September 2015.

Navy, Air Force lag behind in professionalism, topPentagon official says


By Andrew Tilghman
February 7, 2016 

Rear Adm. Margaret Klein, who heads the Pentagon's office on military professionalism, explains why commanders and others in leadership roles are held by higher standards. Video by Lars Schwetje and Andrew Tilghman 

A force-wide look at misconduct among seniormilitary officers — and the efforts to prevent it — found significant differences among the services’ cultures.

“The Army and the Marine Corps have a very mature profession of arms,” said Rear Adm. Margaret “Peg” Klein, the defense secretary’s senior adviser for military professionalism.

“The ground forces, they send really junior people into leadership positions. They have company command, they have O-3s going into command, and their professional identity is learned very early on,” Klein said, referring to the paygrade for captains in the Army, Marines and Air Force. Navy O-3s are lieutenants. Yet the Navy and the Air Force, historically, “are very technically focused,” she said.

Marine Corps Gazette Twofer: IW Evolution and a Response

February 8, 2016


The concept of an evolution to a new type of warfare has been understood for decades, but the U.S. military, the Marine Corps included, has failed to adapt to the changing methods of waging war. The type of warfare that goes by the names irregular, counterinsurgency, low-intensity, and hybrid, among others, is not new at all. Although the methods used in this type of war may seem unfamiliar or un-warlike to a conventionally trained military, it is war nonetheless. While theMarine Corps still relies solely on the methods of conventional maneuver warfare, or even older ones of attrition and massed firepower, our enemies have adapted other ways of defeating us. Both state and non-state actors have used terrorism, propaganda, recruitment through social media, and combined regular and guerilla tactics to defeat far technologically superior forces. No matter what name we give to the poorly understood methods of irregular war, the fact remains that it is still war, and we must adapt if we are to be successful in it. As our enemies’ methods of war have evolved, ours must evolve as well if we want to remain relevant. It is time for the Marine Corps to change the way it thinks about, trains for, and carries out irregular warfare…

Every so often, a long-dormant idea is rediscovered by a new generation, dusted off, and proffered as a wise solution by the ancients to a modern problem. There are also ideas, which, while once valuable, eventually outlive their usefulness and require a new paradigm to replace them. Capt Jason Topshe’s article (MCG, January 2016) on irregular warfare and light infantry is a convergence of both phenomena. In this case, he resurrects the proposal to turn the Marine Corps into a light infantry outfit to fight “fourth-generation” wars, a concept, which, while once useful in characterizing certain conflicts over the last 25 years, should be discarded in favor of a new paradigm. Our current threat environment is dangerous enough without seeking to “fight the last war” using an organizational concept that the Marine Corps did not adopt a quarter-century ago when it arose, for good reason…

SQUEEZING WATER FROM A STONE: FIVE MISSEDOPPORTUNITIES IN PLANNING THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. ARMY

FEBRUARY 8, 2016

During the past 15 years, the U.S. Army has borne the brunt of the demands of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (also called ISIL) — wars that are far from over. In this context, the fact that Congress felt compelled to establish a commission to consider the future mission and purpose of the Army tells us something dismaying about the quality of strategic thinking in Washington. As disorder spreads in the Middle East and regional powers such as Russia flex their muscles, we will undoubtedly rely time and again on the Army, whose reason for being is to deter and defeat adversaries. The real question is what resources Congress needs to provide to the Army to enable officers and soldiers to perform this mission.

Let’s start with the positive. The National Commission on the Future of the Army, which reported out last week, made some valuable points. First, it pushed back on some bad, politically driven ideas that questioned the need for a robust Army. The report affirmed that “land power will be required to fight and win wars now and in the future, despite the aspirations of some to fight wars at arm’s length.” It also stated that demands for Army forces are increasing. While these points might seem obvious, they implicitly challenge the worldview of the Obama administration, which has consistently undervalued the role of conventional ground forces in its way of war and for keeping the peace.

On Talent Management and Mentorship

February 7, 2016

It’s no surprise that the military is failing to retain many of its best and brightest leaders. The call fortalent management reform has been rung and it would seem that for those of us not working at OSD-Plans and Policy, there is little that we can do other than wait for changes to come. Sadly, this assumption is far from the truth. Regardless of what comes from the Force of the Future initiative[i] and assorted personnel reforms, we will never have a perfectly efficient labor market in the military.

There will always be imperfect information about our people, their desires, the opportunities ahead of them, and their needs for professional growth. Yes, policy reforms are needed, but they are not enough. People are our most precious resource and they are far more complex and nuanced than any algorithm can easily replicate, so it will take people to keep our personnel system strong. Mentors take active roles to keep the market efficient as they “help [future leaders] formulate career goals, encourage them to conduct candid self-inventories, and offer honest yet confidential talent assessments.”[ii] Corporate America (where the labor market is far closer to efficient) has recognized the need for leaders to identify and shepherd talented junior leaders for development[iii]; and even recommendations for military personnel reforms[iv] include mentors, too.

NO REPLACEMENT FOR MILITARY ENGAGEMENT AND FORWARD PRESENCE

FEBRUARY 8, 2016

In recent years, the Obama administration’s foreign policy has emphasized precision strike stand-off capabilities, especially drones, as well as a policy of surging American military might from the continental United States (CONUS) after a crisis has already started, versus maintaining significant overseas force presence. In the face of the Great Recession and sequestration, these two policy tools were particularly attractive approaches for managing insecurity in a resource-constrained environment. However, with the economy in much better shape and the worst years of the debt crisis past, it is unclear whether the next administration will embrace these same tools.

9 February 2016

Pakistan’s Less-Than-Secret Role in Facilitating the Rise of the Afghan Taliban and the Islamist Jihadi Movement

Pakistan’s Hand in the Rise of International Jihad
Carlotta Gall,  New York Times, February 7, 2016
TUNIS — PRESIDENT ASHRAF GHANI of Afghanistan has warned in several recent interviews that unless peace talks with Pakistan and the Taliban produce results in the next few months, his country may not survive 2016. Afghanistan is barely standing, he says, after the Taliban onslaught last year, which led to the highest casualties among civilians and security forces since 2001.
“How much worse will it get?” Mr. Ghani asked in a recent television interview. “It depends on how much regional cooperation we can secure, and how much international mediation and pressure can be exerted to create rules of the game between states.”

What he means is it depends on how much international pressure can be brought to bear on Pakistan to cease its aggression.
Critics of the Afghan leadership say it’s not Pakistan’s fault that its neighbor is falling apart. They point to the many internal failings of the Afghan government: political divisions, weak institutions, warlords and corruption.
But experts have found a lot of evidence that Pakistan facilitated the Taliban offensive. The United States and China have been asking Pakistan to persuade the Taliban to make peace, but Afghanistan argues that Islamabad has done nothing to rein in the Taliban, and if anything has encouraged it to raise the stakes in hopes of gaining influence in any power-sharing agreement.
This behavior is not just an issue for Afghanistan. Pakistan is intervening in a number of foreign conflicts. Its intelligence service has long acted as the manager of international mujahedeen forces, many of them Sunni extremists, and there is even speculation that it may have been involved in the rise of the Islamic State.

Heads of Afghan and Pakistani Intelligence Services Meet in Sign of Thawing Relations

Afghanistan meeting ends with call for talks with Taliban
Associated Press, February 6, 2016
ISLAMABAD (AP) – Four-nation talks aimed at ending Afghanistan’s 15-year war concluded Saturday with a call for direct negotiations between the government and the Taliban by the end of February, but recent battlefield advances by the insurgents could make it hard to coax them to the table.
A one-page statement released at the end of the meeting, which was attended by representatives of Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the United States, said a roadmap for peace had been agreed upon. However it offered no details on what incentives the government might offer the Taliban.
The statement urged the Taliban, who were not present at the meeting, to join the peace process. All four countries agreed to hold a fourth meeting in Kabul on Feb. 23.

The last direct talks between Kabul and the Taliban broke down after just one round last year following the announcement of the death of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar.
A diplomat attending the four-nation talks, which were held in Pakistan, said one of the biggest obstacles is identifying which Taliban factions are sincere about making peace and which are “irreconcilable” – either too radical to compromise or too tainted by past atrocities.
The diplomat also said the four nations are struggling to agree on confidence-building measures and other incentives to bring the insurgents back to the negotiating table. The diplomat asked that neither his name nor nationality be used because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

Saviour of Kashmir

By Col JP Singh, Retd
07 Feb , 2016

Military history is written by the victor. But the history made with supreme sacrifice of men and women defending their motherland and written in blood, even if defeated, is never allowed to die. Such history is preserved and recalled on every appropriate occasion to enlighten and inspire future generations to emulate the heroic deeds of their predecessors so that the nation regains the lost glory. Hence this 125th birth anniversary of Brig Rajinder Singh on 14th June is an occasion to recall history written with his blood.

Aware that during 68 years after his martyrdom, a lot has been said and written about Brig Rajinder Singh, MVC by military historians, army officers, me and the media, yet at the risk of repetition, I thought it may be of great relevance to recall true versions of some officers and men who fought with him and lived to tell the tales to their progeny from whom I have the inputs.

Brig Rajinder Singh’s martyrdom is unique in the annals of military history. Nowhere in the history of world armies there is an instance of an officer of Brigadier rank being ordered to command a contingent of 100 men and fight ‘to the last man and last round’. This is best done by a Captain or Major. But he did it not only as a brigadier but also as ‘Chief of States Forces’ and fought to the last round and laid down his life at the altar of his Ruler’s command in the centuries old Dogra traditions.

What Ails our Internal Security?

By Brig Anil Gupta
08 Feb , 2016

India has been victim of cross-border jihadi terrorism for more than a decade. Jammu & Kashmir continues to be a boiling pot kind courtesy the proxy war launched by Pakistan and due to spread of religious fundamentalism. 83 districts in the hinterland spread among 9 states referred as “Red Corridor” are engulfed with Naxalism and are engaged in conflict with the State. The North-East continues to simmer with ethnic conflicts and insurgencies. “Intolerance”, Dalit versus Non-Dalit and minority appeasement are being used as tools by the political parties to engineer internal disturbances in the country.

The underworld is not only having adverse influence on our economy but is also involved in assisting terror outfits. Is it not a scary scenario? Still as a nation we refuse to rise to the challenge, acknowledge presence of elephant in the room and yet do not have a National Security Doctrine and a counter-terror strategy.