http://nypost.com/2014/01/09/say-good-bye-to-our-middle-east-allies/
By Benny Avni
January 9, 2014 |
The Saudis just flipped the bird at President Obama. It’s hard to blame them: They’re just looking after their own interests in the increasingly chaotic Middle East. The question is when, if ever, America will get off the fence and start protecting its interests in the region.
In promising $3 billion to Lebanon to bolster its military, Riyadh attached two conditions: 1) that the cash go to the Lebanese army’s stalled drive to disarm the terrorists of Hezbollah, and 2) that Lebanon buy its arms from France.
For decades, the Saudis have furnished their own military almost exclusively with US arms. But the French are much more proactive than America these days in the Mideast and African theaters, so the Saudis trust them to assure that the weapons will go to the right cause.
Consider the event that triggered Riyadh’s move — Hezbollah’s assassination two weeks ago of former Lebanese Finance Minister Mohamad Chatah.
A prominent Sunni politician, Chatah was a veteran of the International Monetary Fund, a graduate of the University of Texas and former ambassador to Washington. He was also a moderate voice in Beirut, which is again embroiled in a civil war, this time a spillover from Syria.
In other words, he was a poster boy for a would-be American ally in Lebanon. And indeed, the US embassy in Beirut dutifully condemned his killing “in the strongest terms.”
But that was it. As in the rest of the region, the Lebanese warring factions, friend and foe, no longer expect Washington to offer much beyond feeble rhetoric.
Not so the Saudis. Like other forces in the Mideast, Riyadh is jockeying for position, trying to expand its influence as chaos grows in the wake of America’s withdrawal. Fearing the rise of Iran and its Hezbollah lapdog, Riyadh is financing anyone who might stand up to Shiite militants.
And Chatah was a Riyadh ally, a top aide of Saudi-backed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri — who was himself assassinated in 2005.
The Saudis were seething back then, too, but they trusted the Americans to navigate the world’s response. And, in fact, the launch of a UN investigation into Hariri’s killing and the worldwide condemnation of Hezbollah and Syria (both likely involved in the assassination) at that time strengthened the Lebanese government’s hold on power and renewed hopes for disarming Hezbollah.
Yet in the Obama years, the (inevitably slow) UN investigation was allowed to stall. And Hezbollah’s grown vastly; where its arms then were old Katyusha rockets, now it has 100,000 modern missiles.
Its fighters are the main pro-Assad force in Syria — but if they head back to Lebanon to defend their home turf, the Saudis no longer hope that America will do anything about it.
Hence the Saudi grant, complete with the pro-French strings.
Why should we care?
First, because Lebanon is only one theater in a widening war between Sunnis and Shiites. Just as in Syria and Iraq, that war’s victors are increasingly the terrorists — Iran’s proxy Hezbollah on the Shiite side, and al Qaeda types on the Sunni side. When either one wins, we may very well be forced back to war.
Yet America, the former go-to world leader, now refuses to help shape the region’s future, or even to cultivate allies among the Arab world’s different tribes. So the Saudis (and Iranians, and jihadis, and Russians and everybody else and his sister) are on the move, seeking their own allies.
Of course, as 9/11 taught us, Saudi allies aren’t necessarily ours.
But Riyadh can still be a big help, notes Michael Doran of the Brookings Institution and a former Mideast hand on George W. Bush’s National Security Council. The Saudis (with other Gulf states) financed much of America’s costs in the 1990-91 war to liberate Kuwait; this “would be a good precedent to follow today,” he says. Riyadh would “be glad to subsidize a more robust American policy” in the region.
But instead of pitching in, the Saudis are now drifting further away — as are other allies that we’ll desperately need if events again force us to do battle with the extremists.
By Benny Avni
January 9, 2014 |
The Saudis just flipped the bird at President Obama. It’s hard to blame them: They’re just looking after their own interests in the increasingly chaotic Middle East. The question is when, if ever, America will get off the fence and start protecting its interests in the region.
In promising $3 billion to Lebanon to bolster its military, Riyadh attached two conditions: 1) that the cash go to the Lebanese army’s stalled drive to disarm the terrorists of Hezbollah, and 2) that Lebanon buy its arms from France.
For decades, the Saudis have furnished their own military almost exclusively with US arms. But the French are much more proactive than America these days in the Mideast and African theaters, so the Saudis trust them to assure that the weapons will go to the right cause.
Consider the event that triggered Riyadh’s move — Hezbollah’s assassination two weeks ago of former Lebanese Finance Minister Mohamad Chatah.
A prominent Sunni politician, Chatah was a veteran of the International Monetary Fund, a graduate of the University of Texas and former ambassador to Washington. He was also a moderate voice in Beirut, which is again embroiled in a civil war, this time a spillover from Syria.
In other words, he was a poster boy for a would-be American ally in Lebanon. And indeed, the US embassy in Beirut dutifully condemned his killing “in the strongest terms.”
But that was it. As in the rest of the region, the Lebanese warring factions, friend and foe, no longer expect Washington to offer much beyond feeble rhetoric.
Not so the Saudis. Like other forces in the Mideast, Riyadh is jockeying for position, trying to expand its influence as chaos grows in the wake of America’s withdrawal. Fearing the rise of Iran and its Hezbollah lapdog, Riyadh is financing anyone who might stand up to Shiite militants.
And Chatah was a Riyadh ally, a top aide of Saudi-backed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri — who was himself assassinated in 2005.
The Saudis were seething back then, too, but they trusted the Americans to navigate the world’s response. And, in fact, the launch of a UN investigation into Hariri’s killing and the worldwide condemnation of Hezbollah and Syria (both likely involved in the assassination) at that time strengthened the Lebanese government’s hold on power and renewed hopes for disarming Hezbollah.
Yet in the Obama years, the (inevitably slow) UN investigation was allowed to stall. And Hezbollah’s grown vastly; where its arms then were old Katyusha rockets, now it has 100,000 modern missiles.
Its fighters are the main pro-Assad force in Syria — but if they head back to Lebanon to defend their home turf, the Saudis no longer hope that America will do anything about it.
Hence the Saudi grant, complete with the pro-French strings.
Why should we care?
First, because Lebanon is only one theater in a widening war between Sunnis and Shiites. Just as in Syria and Iraq, that war’s victors are increasingly the terrorists — Iran’s proxy Hezbollah on the Shiite side, and al Qaeda types on the Sunni side. When either one wins, we may very well be forced back to war.
Yet America, the former go-to world leader, now refuses to help shape the region’s future, or even to cultivate allies among the Arab world’s different tribes. So the Saudis (and Iranians, and jihadis, and Russians and everybody else and his sister) are on the move, seeking their own allies.
Of course, as 9/11 taught us, Saudi allies aren’t necessarily ours.
But Riyadh can still be a big help, notes Michael Doran of the Brookings Institution and a former Mideast hand on George W. Bush’s National Security Council. The Saudis (with other Gulf states) financed much of America’s costs in the 1990-91 war to liberate Kuwait; this “would be a good precedent to follow today,” he says. Riyadh would “be glad to subsidize a more robust American policy” in the region.
But instead of pitching in, the Saudis are now drifting further away — as are other allies that we’ll desperately need if events again force us to do battle with the extremists.
No comments:
Post a Comment