18 August 2014

The Iranian Sea-Air-Missile Threat to Gulf Shipping

AUG 14, 2014 

The build-up of Iran’s naval, air, and missile capability is steadily increasing Iran’s ability to pose a wide range of threats to maritime traffic throughout and outside of the Gulf. One potential target of this threat is the steady increase of bulk cargo shipments into the Gulf, Arabian Sea/Gulf of Oman, and Red Seas – shipments that are of growing strategic importance to the Gulf states. However, it is the danger Iran poses to Gulf energy exports that poses the most critical threat to the economies and stability of the other Gulf states, and is the key threat to both international maritime security and the global economy.

There is no question that the secure flow of maritime traffic from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and beyond is critical to the global economy and every developed nation. The United States Government’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) – part of its Department of Energy – reported in 2014 that,

The Strait of Hormuz, on the southeastern coast of Iran, is an important route for oil exports from Iran and other Persian Gulf countries. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide, yet an estimated 17 million bbl/d of crude oil and oil products flowed through it in 2013 (roughly one-third of all seaborne traded oil and almost 20% of total oil produced globally). Liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes also flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 3.9 Tcf of LNG was transported via the Strait of Hormuz in 2013, almost all of which was from Qatar, accounting for about one-third of global LNG trade. (U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 2014)

The Burke Chair is circulating a review draft of a new study of the Iranian sea-air -missile threat to maritime traffic in the Gulf and Indian Ocean which examines the strategic importance of this threat, and Iran’s naval, air, and missile capabilities. It examines how these maritime threats interact with its growing rocket and ballistic missile capabilities and focuses on its capabilities for asymmetric warfare and in scenarios like closing the Gulf.

The study is entitled The Iranian Sea-Air-Missile Threat to Gulf Shipping and is available on the CSIS web site athttp://csis.org/files/publication/140815_Iran_Air_Sea_Missile_Maritime_Threat.pdf

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