7 September 2014

Modi stays the course on nuclear goals

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140907/ground.htm

Amidst a setback with Japan and a major success with Australia on nuclear deals, the good thing is that Modi has maintained continuity in India’s nuclear weapons doctrine and given impetus to power generation. 
Raj Chengappa

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s widely watched telecast to millions of school students, when one of them asked what kind of a person he was in real life, he turned philosophical. Modi talked of the spiritual quest of understanding ‘Who am I?’ and ended humbly admitting: “I am yet to fully discover myself. I have not been able to know who I am.”

Judging by his performance last week it was apparent who ‘Modi Sir’ really was: An omnipresent and omnipotent Prime Minister. If Modi the campaigner loomed large over TV screens and 3D holograms, Modi the PM is now no less visible, whether imparting fatherly advice to students or playing the drums and the flute in Japan, revealing in the process a kinder, gentler facet to his personality.

On the world stage, while he got on famously with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and struck some important deals, particularly with regard to investment in Indian infrastructure, there was disappointment on the nuclear front. India was keen on entering into a civilian nuclear deal with Japan that would permit Delhi among other things to import reactor technology that is among the world’s best.

Abe though faced stiff political resistance as there has been a major rethink in the country over its dependence on nuclear power after the Fukushima reactor meltdown in the wake of the 2011 tsunami. Also there remains a large lobby that is against selling nuclear technology to a country like India that has steadfastly refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), conducted six nuclear tests and boasts of being a nuclear weapons state. Japan, the world’s only victim of a nuclear strike, remains resolute on its policy of not encouraging nations that remain outside the NPT orbit. Japanese negotiators adopted a tough stance demanding stringent inspection and safeguards of nuclear power plants that India is unwilling to accept.
Tony Abbot's nuclear handshake would have come as a relief for Narendra Modi. 

The visiting Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot though came to the rescue of Modi soon after with a landmark nuclear handshake. When India and Australia inked the deal on Friday, it was the first time that Canberra was signing an agreement to supply uranium to a non-signatory of NPT. Though the Australian nuclear deal had been in the works for years, stiff domestic political resistance had prevented it from being signed earlier. Two major factors were responsible for Australia’s change of heart. With uranium a major source of revenue for Australian provinces and the need to boost economic growth, the government was able to persuade naysayers that India had an impeccable track record with regard to nuclear non-proliferation and had enough safeguards to ensure that there was no diversion of uranium for military use. Also given Australia’s growing strategic stakes in the Asia Pacific region, good relations with India was a must.

For India’s nuclear programme, the Australian deal is welcome news. With Australia having the world’s largest uranium reserves accounting for 31 per cent of the total, the deal provides India with a reliable and continuous supply of fuel for its nuclear power reactors. Currently, the 20 nuclear plants in operation generate around 5,000 MW of power or 2 per cent of India’s total power requirement. Of these, 50 per cent of the fuel used is from imported sources, mainly from Russia, France and Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, India is expected to double its nuclear power plant production by 2020. With Indian uranium reserves being limited, Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Dr R.K. Sinha told me that the Australian deal would lead to greater “stability and sustainability” for India’s nuclear fuel requirements both for current use and the future.

To achieve its full potential of civilian nuclear power apart from constructing indigenously built reactors, India also needs to import reactor technology from giants like France, Russia, US and Japan. While the 2008 Indo-US nuclear deal ended India’s pariah status and facilitated civilian nuclear trade with other countries, India’s stringent nuclear liability law passed recently has been a major damper for foreign companies. While Russia and France have reluctantly worked a way around it, US companies have been chafing at the bit and want the law suitably amended. The US is also upset that after expending so much political capital to help India, it has not received much in return.

When Modi makes his maiden Prime Ministerial visit to the US, the civilian nuclear deal would again be in focus at his summit with President Barack Obama. There is added interest because the nuclear plants earmarked for US companies are to come up in Gujarat. With domestic Indian power companies also complaining about the “stifling” liability laws, the Indian nuclear establishment is trying its best to work out a via media that would meet the requirements of law but also make it viable for them to invest. If it fructifies this may remove the roadblock for US companies too and Modi could come back with significant forward movement on this vexatious issue.

Despite the mixed bag on the nuclear front, the good thing is that Modi has demonstrated keenness to maintain continuity in India’s nuclear weapons doctrine as well as give impetus to its civilian nuclear power ambitions.

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