Lebanese Hezbollah members carry the coffins of two of their comrades, killed in clashes with fighters from Jabhat al-Nusra in eastern Lebanon, during a funeral in Baalbek, in the Bekaa valley, Oct. 6, 2014. (photo by REUTERS/Ahmad Shalha)
AuthorPosted October 7, 2014
Translator(s)Cynthia Milan
Original Article اقرا المقال الأصلي باللغة العربية
Lebanon’s presidential position has been vacant for 136 days now [as of the time of writing], and the course of events is now controlled by Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State (IS). They are delivering a daily program for the parents of abducted soldiers, indicating the steps they should take while threatening to kill their sons who are members of the army and the Internal Security Forces (ISF). They are steering the policy of a Lebanese political party that was quick to invest in the serious security developments that occurred last Sunday [Oct. 5] in the eastern Mount Lebanon range; Hezbollah was held responsible for what happened and the party was called to immediately withdraw from Syria, as reiterated by Samir Geagea and the March 14 secretariat.
Summary⎙ Print The attack by Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra militants on Hezbollah positions in the western Bekaa in Lebanon was an attempt to open a new front and boost morale.
It was quite interesting that certain Arab and Lebanese media outlets dealt with the video that was circulated by Jabhat al-Nusra — which included a soundtrack, songs and pictures — like it was a “cinematic treasure” necessitating guests and comments.
Amid this “Lebanese echo” on both the media and political levels, and along with the developments in the barren lands of Brital, a prominent Lebanese source told As-Safir that Maronite patriarch Bechara al-Rai said, on the eve of his trip to the Vatican, in front of a small group of people in Bkerke, “If the Christians in Lebanon are asked today for their opinion regarding these developments, they would all answer that were it not for Hezbollah, IS’ expansion would have reached Jounieh.”
The events that occurred in the barren lands of Brital on Sunday, about two months after the battle of Arsal, is a warning bell, putting the country facing questions on the minimum of internal cohesion in the face of the takfiri threat. So what are the facts?
The confrontations’ facts
Reliable security sources told As-Safir that Hezbollah’s fighters faced fierce confrontations in the barren lands of Brital and foiled an attack launched by Jabhat al-Nusra militants toward their locations there, which led to the death of eight members of Hezbollah while dozens of the terrorist groups’ members were killed and wounded, including a field leader.
The sources pointed out that hundreds of Jabhat al-Nusra militants came from the barren lands of Assal al-Ward, Vlita, Ham and Serghaya in the area of Qalamoun, and launched, on Sunday [Oct. 5] afternoon, a major offensive on about 15 Hezbollah positions, distributed along the area of al-Nabi Sabat in the barren lands of Brital down to Younine which are linked to the barren lands of Arsal. They paved the way with a camouflage shelling which reached the barren lands of Arsal. At the same time, an intense bombardment targeted military positions for Hezbollah before they were attacked.
The sources noted that the attack occurred during noon prayers, but Hezbollah members managed to block the attack and stop the advance of militants in most areas, except for the breach that hit Ain al-Sa’a. This area includes three positions, and is located at an advanced area on the Lebanese-Syrian border nested in the barren lands of al-Nabi Sabat, about 30 kilometers [19 miles] away from Brital. The militants were able to control, for some time, one of Hezbollah’s positions in Ain al-Sa’a and were able to kill six of its members there before Hezbollah quickly took the lead through a counterattack that enabled it to regain control, killing and injuring a number of militants.
According to the same sources, the clashes lasted several hours, during which automatic weapons, rockets and artillery were used. Hundreds of residents from Brital and the surrounding villages rushed with their individual weapons to confront the attacking groups. Hezbollah fighters succeeded in closing in on that point, which was controlled by the militants, after they used large firepower in parallel with explosive devices that were planted in some of the hills and mountain roads, as well as artillery and mortar rockets that targeted the attackers, killing large numbers of them.
The sources pointed out that the armed groups had launched, 10 days ago, a similar attack on some of the centers in the same area, and sought to reach the town of Assal al-Ward, but the attack was foiled.
This attack was preceded by several attempts in recent weeks by terrorist groups based in the barren lands of Qalamoun and Arsal — whose number is estimated at 3,000 and who are led by a Jabhat al-Nusra emir in Qalamoun, Abu Malik Talli — moving toward fortified and sensitive borders controlled by the Syrian army and Hezbollah.
The attack’s objectives
The sources said that the objective of the attack executed by Jabhat al-Nusra militants probably aims to:
First, accomplish a tactical and morale goal, by achieving any kind of military victory against Hezbollah.
Second, accomplish a tactical goal, by trying to find the militants a safe passage to find warm shelter and escape from the cold weather of the barren lands of Qalamoun. This is especially true in light of the scarcity of fuel and means of heating, not to mention the shortage of food and medical supplies, after they had rejected an offer made by the Syrian army to provide them with a safe passage toward certain areas in the Syrian Desert.
Third, send a message saying, “Despite the blockade, we are not in a quiescent state, but we have the ability to develop and implement plans as well as choosing the appropriate timing and circumstances for them.”
Fourth, try to achieve a strategic goal by closing in on all points controlled by Hezbollah in Brital and the barren lands of Younine and Nahleh, through which Hezbollah blocks the road between the barren lands of Qalamoun from the north and Zabadani from the south, within Syrian territory.
Fifth, if the Syrian [army’s] grip preventing the expansion of the militants within Syria — after they had suffered several setbacks — hinders the achievement of the Syrian dimension on the battlefield, then the Lebanese dimension (especially on the political level) has now become part of the plans of armed groups and their regional sponsors.
The sources said that the armed groups’ control of locations between the barren lands of Qalamoun and Zabadani would provide moral and military victory. It would allow them to readjust, and even change the rules on the field of Damascus, as well as securing strategic depth stretching from the barren lands of Qalamoun to Zabadani down to the bordering region of al-Masnaa, and from there to some villages on the western Bekaa border. At the same time, the militants would make the area of Brital and its surroundings open to all possibilities, just as they planned, by invading villages in Bekaa, kidnapping and killing whoever gets in their way, be they Lebanese militants or civilians.
The sources noted that Hezbollah was ready for all serious military possibilities and scenarios, and this has led to the failure of most of the attackers’ tactical and strategic goals. Hezbollah is aware of the dimensions of the serious project that the takfiris wish to accomplish and through which they aim to include Lebanon in the midst of a fatal and evil division.
The militants’ choices
What comes after Jabhat al-Nusra’s failure in invading Brital?
The same sources said that the militants will not stop attempting to penetrate the cordon imposed on them in the barren lands of Qalamoun and Arsal, and thus they have several options:
First, going toward the Syrian Qalamoun. This option will fail due to the closure of the Syrian army and Hezbollah on all ports.
Second, trying again to break into the barren lands of Brital. This option will be more costly than previous times, especially the attempt of last Sunday [Oct. 5], in light of the actions taken by Hezbollah which included resorting to elite forces on the outposts.
Third, attempting to occupy multiple places ranging from Shebaa, al-Arqoub and the western Bekaa (Majdal Anjar) through some of the cells, leading to the north, particularly Tripoli, as well as to the interior and the coastline to the south, and this is what requires increased vigilance and alert.
Fourth, trying to focus on some of the soft and vulnerable points, especially in al-Kaa and Ras Baalbek, to strike and attack villages in that region, and possibly commit massacres if the attackers were able to reach them.
Fifth, this is the most dangerous and most likely option, which is trying to repeat the battle of Arsal, especially as the commander of the Armed Forces explicitly predicted, a few days ago, the return of the confrontations with armed groups in Arsal.
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