Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, ICM & SATP
In a searing self-assessment, the Central Committee (CC) of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), at its 4th Meet, some time in April-May 2013, conceded, "the condition of our countrywide movement is critical". And further,
In DK (Dandakaranya) mass base decreased in considerable area, the intensity and expanse of the resistance of the PLGA (People's Liberation Guerrilla Army) and people decreased; non-proletarian trends increased in party and the PLGA, recruitment decreased; number of people leaving the party and the PLGA increased... the movement in NT (North Telangana) and AOB (Andhra Odisha Border) is in ebb. We are striving hard for their revival. Gondia division is continuing in a weak condition since a long period of time. Due to series of arrests in the past few years the Maharashtra movement is facing setback.
Though the Mainpur division movement in the COB (Chhattisgarh Odisha Border) area has weakened, in the rest of the area the movement is gradually getting established among the people and expanding. Due to betrayal of (Sabyasachi) Panda and enemy onslaught the Odisha movement weakened a lot. Due to heavy losses to the leadership and subjective forces and due to decrease in mass base the BJ (Bihar Jharkhand) movement suffered setback at present. Due to Comrade Kishenji's martyrdom and martyrdom and arrests of state and district leadership comrade and dent in the deluge of Lalgarh movement the Paschim Bang (West Bengal) movement suffered a setback... ..
(Due to) the martyrdom of four comrades including the secretary of the State Leading Committee in a fake encounter and arrests of other comrades... the Asom (Assam) state movement that was gradually developing weakened. In North Region we lost subjective forces at various levels along with party's central and state level leadership... As a result the North Regional Bureau was completely damaged...
Between 2009 and 2012 the enemy damaged our central weapon manufacturing and supply departments; the political and military people's intelligence departments, the central magazine department, central SUCOMO (Sub Committee on Mass Organisations) and the international department.
No official or outside assessment has been quite as devastating as the 4th CC's resolutions, reiterated thereafter in the Revolutionary Greetings for the 9th Anniversary of the party (September 21-27, 2013). Unsurprisingly, given the acknowledged weakening of the party, fatalities linked to Maoist violence across the country have remained relatively low, at 421 in 2013 [including 159 civilians, 111 Security Force (SF) personnel and 151 insurgents], less than 36 per cent of the peak fatalities in 2010, at 1,180 (626 civilians, 277 SF personnel and 277 Maoists), according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database. The 2013 figure, however, represents a significant escalation, after three years of continuous decline, from 367 fatalities in 2012 [146 civilians; 104 SF personnel; 117 Maoists]. Initial data for 2014 suggests a continuation of this escalating trend, with 81 already killed by March 17. Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) data, however, indicates a continuance of the declining trend through 2012-2013, with 394 fatalities recorded in 2013, as against 415 in 2012, 611 in 2011 and 1,005 in 2010.