5 April 2015

Impressions of the Indian strategic debate

Sam Roggeveen

The US-India relationship has never been stronger. That much I knew as I began my first visit-ever to India earlier this month to meet with a wide range of Indian foreign policy and defence experts. What I did not appreciate was the depth of mistrust towards China on which this relationship is being built, particularly from the Indian side.

Consider the remarks of Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar, who opened a US-India conference in New Delhi last week with a speech of unusual potency. Consistent with much typical diplomatic practice, Jaishankar made few direct references to Beijing, but he broke away from diplomatese in his description of America’s role in the Indian Ocean. He could only have had China in mind when he said that “for us the fact that the US is both a source of supply and a military partner helps to create enough uncertainties that could actually strengthen security in Indo-Pacific region”. Consider the pungency of that phrasing – rarely do you hear senior diplomats talk about instability in other than negative terms, yet Jaishankar says India welcomes uncertainty because it complicates Chinese decision-making in the region. That’s some high-level Macchiavelianism, a trait that many senior diplomats practice but which few discuss openly.

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