15 April 2015

Iran's Unfolding China Dilemma

April 13, 2015 

On Thursday April 2, the political framework for a final comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program was finally agreed to. In anticipation of potential future sanctions relief, China took a number of immediate steps to secure its trade and energy interests in Iran. While Iran welcomes this, it is still wary of Beijing’s efforts.

As European and US sanctions were tightened, Iran increasingly turned to Asia to weather their impact. Despite efforts to coax Beijing away from Tehran, Washington was forced to repeatedly renew US sanctions waivers for China as Beijing continued to import oil from Iran. In fact, according to the International Energy Agency, Chinese purchases of crude oil in January 2014 boosted Iranian exports to 1.32 million barrels per day; 32% above the limit allowed by the November 2013 agreement with the P5+1. Clearly, China was anticipating more permanent sanctions relief and wanted to be ahead of the curve.

Iran is at the heart of a number of key Chinese strategic interests, including greater and more diversified supplies of energy, building a “Silk Road” connecting the Middle East to China via Central Asia, and increasing its influence in the region.

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