What Russia Accomplished in Syria

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/18/world/middleeast/what-russia-accomplished-in-syria.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=1

By ANNE BARNARD, SERGIO PEÇANHA and DEREK WATKINS MARCH 18, 2016

Russian jets started attacking Syria six months ago and changed the course of the war. Now Russia says it is done, but the extent of its pullout remains unclear. 

Russian airstrikes were concentrated in areas

held by rebels who are not affiliated with

the Islamic State and who often clash with it.

Circles show known locations of Russian

airstrikes from September 2015 to March 2016.

TURKEY

Qamishli

Kobani

Hasaka

Manbij

58 strikes

ISIS

CONTROL

25

Aleppo

Raqqa

Idlib

REBEL

CONTROL

Latakia

3

Deir al-Zour

SYRIA

Tartus

Homs

Abu Kamal

LEBANON

Sparsely

populated areas

IRAQ

Damascus

Nawa

Sweida

JORDAN

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

Russia struck ISIS targets, but mostly in areas

where the group threatened the Syrian government.

It helped the government break a siege at an airbase near

Aleppo, and attacked targets near Palmyra and Deir al-Zour.

TURKEY

Qamishli

Kobani

Hasaka

Manbij

ISIS

CONTROL

Aleppo

Raqqa

Idlib

Latakia

Deir al-Zour

GOVERNMENT

CONTROL

SYRIA

Tartus

Homs

Palmyra

Abu Kamal

LEBANON

IRAQ

Damascus

Nawa

Sweida

JORDAN

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

Russia helped pro-government forces push back rebels

and consolidate territory in key parts of the country.

Russian targets ranged from the Qaeda-linked Nusra Front to

relatively secular groups made up mainly of army defectors and backed

by the United States, with a spectrum of Islamist groups in between.

Darker areas indicate territorial gains

from September 2015 to March 2016.

TURKEY

Qamishli

Kobani

Hasaka

Manbij

Aleppo

Raqqa

Idlib

Euphrates River

REBEL

CONTROL

Latakia

Deir al-Zour

GOVERNMENT

GAINS

GOVERNMENT

CONTROL

Tartus

SYRIA

Homs

Palmyra

Abu Kamal

LEBANON

Sparsely

populated areas

IRAQ

Damascus

Nawa

Sweida

JORDAN

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

Russia was accused by human rights groups of killing

civilians and bombing civilian infrastructure indiscriminately.

Schools and hospitals were regularly hit, in what opposition

groups considered a deliberate effort to drive away people

who were not likely to reconcile with the government.

Workers and residents try to rescue a man after a reported airstrike in a rebel-held area of Aleppo on March 11, 2016.Thaer Mohammed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Russia played an essential role in negotiating a

cease-fire that is working better than expected.

A Red Crescent aid convoy reached a rebel-held suburb near Damascus on Feb. 23, 2016.Amer AlmohibanyAgence France-Presse -- Getty Images

It is unclear whether Kurdish forces coordinated

with Russia, but Kurdish-controlled territory

expanded considerably during Russia’s air campaign.

Russia supports Kurdish aspirations for a federal system and

is pushing for the Kurds to be treated as part of the opposition.

But other opposition groups view Kurds with suspicion.

TURKEY

Qamishli

Kobani

Hasaka

Manbij

KURDISH

CONTROL

KURDISH

GAINS

Aleppo

Raqqa

Idlib

Latakia

Deir al-Zour

Tartus

Homs

SYRIA

Palmyra

Abu Kamal

LEBANON

IRAQ

Damascus

Nawa

Sweida

JORDAN

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

Russia’s withdrawal puts the military onus

back on the Syrian government and could

pressure it to heed Russia’s demand that it

negotiate with at least some opposition groups.