30 July 2016

** Shia Massacre in Afghanistan – Reason not Always Simple

By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
29 Jul , 2016

On July 23, two suicide bombings ripped through a protest march by Hazaras in Kabul’s Dehmazang Square killing 80 and wounding 260. The Hazaras were protesting rerouting of the Asian Development Bank and World Bank funded Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TUTAP) power project which was originally planned through the Hazara dominated Bamyan Province. The rerouting puts the Hazaras at a disadvantage in terms of electricity. Thousands of people attended the demonstration and the protestors were returning when two terrorists detonated their explosive belts killing 80 and injuring some 260.

As per UNAMA report: some 5,166 people were killed or maimed in Afghanistan in the first six months of this year…

A third suicide bomber was reportedly killed before he could detonate his bomb, otherwise the casualty rate would have gone up further. President Ashraf Ghani described the dastardly terrorist attack as the deadliest since 2001 in a televised address, declared July 24 as a day of national mourning and promised action against the culprits. The ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. According to the VOA, the ISIS also said the attack was meant to warn the Hazaras to stop fighting alongside the Syrian government.

It may be recalled that when Kabul was truck bombed on 7 August 2015, killing 15 and wounding 400 on August 7, 2015, Afghan clerics had given a call against Pakistan saying Jihad is eligible against Pakistan’s military intelligence (ISI) and Punjabi military because of their direct involvement in ongoing violence and savagery in Afghanistan. This was after the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) had stated that the attacks were carried out by elements of the Pakistani army with the help of the Haqqani Network.

More recently on 19 April, 2016 a truck packed with hundreds of kilograms of explosives was rammed into the compound of a security force that protects Afghan VIPs and government officials in Kabul killing dozens and injuring 300. This was part of the ongoing Spring Offensive ‘Omari’ by the Taliban. During the last NATO summit, President Ashraf Ghani had categorically stated that peace initiatives taken by Afghanistan with Pakistan are not successful as Pakistan differentiates between good and bad terrorists in practice – read Pakistan continues to play a double game.

While Pakistan’s sponsorship of the Taliban and Haqqani Network is well known and documented, this is the first time that a UN report has mentioned LeT and JeM operating in Afghanistan.

The recent US congressional panel hearing titled ‘Pakistan: Friend or Foe in the Fight Against Terrorism’ demanded cutting off all US assistance to Pakistan to persuade Islamabad to act against the Afghan Taliban groups allegedly using its territory to launch operations into Afghanistan, some lawmakers even suggesting Pakistan be declared a state sponsor of terrorism and imposing economic sanctions if Islamabad did not eliminate terrorist safe havens on its territory.

The US intelligence had predicted in February this year that violence levels in Afghanistan will likely go up this year. A just released UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) report confirms this in saying that violence has indeed increased in Afghanistan this year as compared to previous years since counting began in 2009 with record levels of civilian casualties. As per this report some 5,166 people were killed or maimed in Afghanistan in the first six months of this year (January to June 2016). This obviously does not include the 80 killed and 231 injured during the suicide attacks on July 23. The report goes on to say that total civilian casualties in the Afghanistan 1 January, 2009 and 30 June, 2016 is almost 64,000, including about 23,000 deaths and 41,000 injured, and these are “conservative” estimates. 

The report states that majority of these casualties are caused by the anti-Afghan government forces; to include Taliban as well as individuals and non-state organized armed groups taking a direct part in hostilities that includes LeT, JeM, Haqqani Network, Hezb-e-Islami, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Islamic Jihad Union, groups identified as ‘Daesh’ (IS) and other militia and armed groups. Significantly while Pakistan’s sponsorship of the Taliban and Haqqani Network is well known and documented, this is the first time that a UN report has mentioned LeT and JeM operating in Afghanistan.

The July 23 Kabul terror attack, for which the ISIS claimed responsibility, has been termed a “war crime” by Tadamichi Yamamoto, UN Secretary General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA. But the question is what is the ISIS in Afghanistan (termed ‘Wilayat Khorasan’ or Khorasan chapter of Afghanistan)? As per James Clapper, Director US National Intelligence, “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) announced in January 2015 the formation of its Khorasan branch in South Asia, an amalgamation of primarily disaffected and rebranded former Afghan Taliban and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members.

The ISI involvement in the Kabul attack is confirmed with one suicide bomber identified and confirmed as Pakistani.

Despite quick early growth in 2015, ISIL’s Khorasan branch will probably remain a low-level threat to Afghan stability as well as to US and Western interests in the region in 2016”. Zamir Kabulov, Russian Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan estimates ISIS strength in Afghanistan at about 10,000 including supporters while the US estimates their strength between 1,000 and 3,000 active members. This is considerable numerical variance but it is relevant to note the US intelligence description that it is an “amalgamation of primarily disaffected and rebranded former Afghan Taliban and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members”. The US intelligence is mum about who cobbled them together in Peshawar, what is their leadership and who pushed them West from Peshawar to establish their major base in nine districts of the Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan? The one word answer is ISI – which the Obama administration has been downplaying. 

Undoubtedly, ISIS doesn’t like Hazaras recruited by Iran fighting in support of Syrian forces (hardly a new phenomenon) but so does Pakistan with Pakistani proxies fighting alongside forces intent on downing President Bashar al-Assad? The ISI involvement in the Kabul attack is confirmed with one suicide bomber identified and confirmed as Pakistani.

It is well known that around 500,000 Pakistani refugees have entered Afghanistan, obviously mixed with regular army and soldiers from mujahid battalions in a repeat of the scene prior to the US invasion of Afghanistan. The coalescing of the Afghan Taliban and the TTP (as admitted by the US intelligence) is because of the Haqqani Network based in Pakistan under ISI tutelage. ISIS or the Wilayat Khorasn on ground actually translates to ISI especially with evidence of LeT and JeM too fighting in Pakistan – both ISI proxies.

With China going out of her way to mother Pakistan, the Pakistani military-ISI is buoyed as the nerve centre controlling the coalesced Taliban and Haqqanis, interlinking of Taliban, Al Qaeda-Haqqanis-AQIS, TTP support to ISIS, Al Qaeda allegiance to Afghan Taliban, Haqqani network in top echelons in Afghan Taliban, ISI supported by Pakistani regulars heading Wilayat Khorasan and the like. During the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan intimately supported by Pakistan, the Northern Alliance (predominant Shia) were targeted and pushed into Afghanistan’s north. Shia and Ahmediya killings in Pakistan are routine.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, the Shia population has been reduced from 70% to 50% in just over a decade through institutionalized killings and demographic invasion.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, the Shia population has been reduced from 70% to 50% in just over a decade through institutionalized killings and demographic invasion. Most Pakistani Hazaras live in Quetta, Balochistan. They are often targeted by terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvii and others. Over 1000 have been killed over past decade and the pace is picking up.

The terror attack on Hazara procession in Kabul should be seen in the above backdrop. And this is certainly not the first time that Shias were targeted in Afghanistan. Just last year, the ISIS kidnapped Hazara Shias from the Zabul province and beheaded seven Hazaras. Hazaras are being targeted in particular because they constitute some 9% of the Afghan population. Pakistan’s apparent aim is to increase sectarian strife in Afghanistan leading to civil war, same being Pakistan’s aim in India. That is why former Pakistani army officer referring to the scenario post US withdrawal from Afghanistan wrote in 2012, “This will be the time when the Russians, Iranians and Indians will have no choice but to support the Northern Alliance against Pakistan sponsored Taliban who regard all Shias, Ismailis, non-Pashtuns, moderate Pashtuns as infidels who deserve to be massacred..”. It is unlikely Pakistan can succeed in such nefarious design but then it is this pursuit that enables the military-ISI to keep holding the jugular of Pakistan.

President Ashraf Ghani told Geo News on July 23 that state to state relations with Pakistan are a bigger challenge for Afghanistan than the existence of terror groups such as Al-Qaeda and Taliban. He probably knows this challenge will continue in the foreseeable future.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review

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