30 January 2017

** The hard facts Team Trump should face on the Middle East

By Ralph Peters

Even as our precision weapons kill terrorists across the region, we have lost the upper Middle East. It’s time to cut our losses, turn the tables on our enduring enemies and restore our core alliances.

A fundamental problem with the Pentagon and State Department is that they can’t grasp the concept of “sunk costs,” that spending more blood and treasure on a lost cause only compounds the waste. So we cling to fantasies of success in Afghanistan, Iraq and even in Syria.

It’s unlikely any new administration can break the hold of Washington-think on foreign policy, but if we truly want a fresh start that benefits the United States and not our enemies, here’s a country-by-country revamp to renew our strengths and exploit the weaknesses of hostile powers, such as Iran, Russia and, lately, Turkey.

Afghanistan: Leave. Fifteen years of military presence and generous aid have not inspired Afghans to build a government for which the people will fight. Despite its comparative poverty, the Taliban is stronger than it was eight years ago — because it has interests for which men will fight to the death.

Strategically, Afghanistan is worthless to us. Dump it on Pakistan and Russia, both of which have striven to undercut us. They’ve sown the wind, now let them reap the whirlwind.

Syria: Leave. Continue supporting the Kurds, but cease operations against the Islamic State within Syria. Right now, we’re fighting the terrorists for the good of the Assad regime, Iran and Russia — while they butcher the moderate opposition and slaughter civilians.

Russia projects an illusion of strength, but its hollowness was recently revealed when the terrorists retook Palmyra — a half-year after Vladimir Putin had staged a symphony concert in the ancient ruins to celebrate recapturing the city. Russia’s “elite” forces are stretched so thin they couldn’t raze Aleppo and simultaneously hold Palmyra.

Russia’s going broke. Don’t rescue Vladimir Putin; bleed him of money and manpower. If the Russians and Iranians want Syria, don’t lend them our Air Force. Let them deal with the Islamic State. We don’t need Syria, they do.

Iraq: It’s gone. Thanks to the Obama administration’s strategic ineptitude, we lost our last grip on the Baghdad government. Iran filled the vacuum, playing the Shia card. Whether or not one believes we should have deposed Saddam Hussein, we had changed the strategic equation to our advantage. Now that’s gone, and we can’t get it back.

We’re providing military support to a government making noises about reparations from us, even as we save it from the Islamic State. That’s madness.

We should keep up our anti-ISIS operations in Iraq — for now — while halting them in Syria. The goal is to drive the Islamist fighters westward, onto Syrian soil, where the Russians inherit the problem (as the price for their new air- and naval-base treaty with Assad). Our only long-term commitment in Iraq should be to the Kurds.

Yes, ISIS is our enemy. But let’s stop being patsies. ISIS is a graver threat to Russian and Iranian ambitions than to us. Let them all kill each other while we re-arm. Meanwhile, we can fight Islamists elsewhere.

Iran: Let Iran bleed in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Respond to Persian Gulf provocations with force. Enforce the nuke deal. Wait.

Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan manipulates our use of Incirlik air base. Call his bluff. If he won’t allow us unfettered use of the base, we should leave and take the strategic pain. But Erdogan should know that, in retribution, we’ll push NATO to suspend Turkish membership and we’ll support self-government for Turkey’s Kurds.

Israel: Support Israel. Always.

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan, Egypt and North Africa. Loathsome as some of their actions may be, these are traditional allies of prime strategic importance. Russia bet on Islam’s Shia minority. We’re fools if we don’t reinvigorate our support of the Sunni majority composing 85 percent of the Islamic world. Renew these alliances, push for greater regional military cooperation and help them find and kill Islamist fanatics.

The first challenge for the Trump administration appears to be recognizing who our enemies are. Russia isn’t our “friend.” It has chosen to be our enemy, as has Iran. So let them deal with the bloody-minded upper Middle East and the Islamic State. And stop pretending we can be “honest brokers.” It’s much better to be capable killers.

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