8 February 2017

** The Islamic State Digs In Along Mosul's Southern Edge


The Islamic State has been working feverishly to block Iraqi troops in eastern Mosul from advancing into the western half of the city. Recent satellite images show the fruits of its labor: Since November, the group has fortified its defensive positions along Mosul's southern edge. Three months ago, the area was riddled with the Islamic State's roadblocks and barriers. Now the militants have added at least 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) of berms and ditches to the same front line, shoring up their defenses and obstructing one of the few routes left into western Mosul.

There is still a good chance that Iraqi troops in eastern Mosul will try to advance westward across the Tigris River, but there are other ways to reach the western half of the city over land. The Islamic State has firmly indicated its unwillingness to cede control over the river's western bank, and it is doing everything it can to cut off alternative approaches. The group's new defensive position in the south — a high berm with a trench dug in front of it — will do just that, making any effort by Iraqi military vehicles to gain entrance to the city from that direction more difficult and hazardous.
Older satellite images taken in late November show the militants' initial efforts to bolster their positions on Mosul's southern edge by erecting berms and digging trenches. Over the past two months, this activity has spread across almost all of the city's southern border, extending from its westernmost boundary to the Tigris River. If Iraqi troops try to reach western Mosul by coming up from the south, they would now have to traverse large clearings around the city's former airport to reach the militants' heavily fortified outposts. The Islamic State is hoping to target the advancing forces from the safety of its defensive line, greatly weakening them before they even reach the city.


The situation is looking increasingly grim for Baghdad's troops. The battle for western Mosul was never expected to be easy, given its narrower and more densely packed streets, where armored vehicles are much harder to maneuver. But now it appear that simply reaching this part of the city will be a challenge in itself. The Islamic State fought hard for Mosul's eastern half, and many believe the group lost some of its best forces there, but it also never enjoyed the advantages of natural barriers and reinforced defensive lines that it now boasts in southern Mosul.

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