22 May 2018

Can the U.S.-Europe Alliance Survive Trump?

BY KEITH JOHNSON, DAN DE LUCE, EMILY TAMKIN
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Fifteen years ago, it was the Iraq War that divided Europe and the United States. Five years ago, it was the awkward revelation that the U.S. had been eavesdropping on the German chancellor’s cellphone. The two powers, pillars of the postwar world order, don’t always see eye-to-eye on policies and practices. But U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and his embrace of a protectionist approach to trade even with close allies have blown a hole in their trans-Atlantic alliance, a breach so big that it could jeopardize decades of stability and prosperity for the West and end up benefiting two other global powers: Russia and China.


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The White House initiatives are at the heart of the rupture, but it goes beyond them. The two sides are clashing over basic principles, calling into question the shared values and approach to the world that have defined relations between Europe and Washington since the 1940s.

“During previous rifts, they parted company over means,” says Charles Kupchan, who oversaw European policy at the National Security Council in the Obama administration. “This is the first time they are parting company over ends.”

European leaders had been bracing for Trump since his days as a presidential candidate, when he questioned the value of the NATO alliance and railed against what he called European countries’ unfair trade. But throughout his first year in office, there was a sense of relief in European capitals that Trump’s action did not match his rhetoric.

That sense of normalcy was bolstered by reassuring messages from senior administration officials such as Vice President Mike Pence and Defense Secretary James Mattis, along with two now-former officials — Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster.

But with Tillerson and McMaster gone, the administration’s posture has turned more aggressive. European allies working to fix the Iran nuclear deal say they were blindsided when Trump abruptly pulled out of the accord and reinstated sweeping economic sanctions on Tehran this month — all despite Iran’s undisputed compliance with the terms of the 2015 agreement.

“With friends like that who needs enemies,” European Council President Donald Tusk wrote about the United States in an unusually blunt tweet this week.

Julianne Smith, who worked as deputy national security advisor for former Vice President Joe Biden and is now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, says European allies are feeling betrayed and angry.

“Some of them are already issuing last rites on the relationship,” she says.

On Thursday, the leaders of Great Britain, Germany, and France reiterated their firm commitment to the Iran deal and pledged to work with the remaining parties to try to keep it alive. That came a day after a European Union-wide summit sought ways to protect the deal even in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal.

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