11 November 2018

Russia’s Cyberwar on Ukraine Is a Blueprint For What’s to Come


“Many global cybersecurity analysts have come to the same conclusion. Where better to train an army of Kremlin hackers in digital combat than in the no-holds-barred atmosphere of a hot war inside the Kremlin’s sphere of influence? ‘The gloves are off. This is a place where you can do your worst without retaliation or prosecution,’ says Geers, the NATO ambassador. ‘Ukraine is not France or Germany. A lot of Americans can’t find it on a map, so you can practice there.’ In that shadow of neglect, Russia isn’t only pushing the limits of its technical abilities, says Thomas Rid, a professor in the War Studies department at King’s College London. It’s also feeling out the edges of what the international community will tolerate. The Kremlin meddled in the Ukrainian election and faced no real repercussions; then it tried similar tactics in Germany, France, and the United States. Russian hackers turned off the power in Ukraine with impunity—and, well, the syllogism isn’t hard to complete. ‘They’re testing out red lines, what they can get away with,’ Rid says. ‘You push and see if you’re pushed back. If not, you try the next step.’”

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