18 December 2019

The Changing Fundamentals of US-China Relations

Evan S. Medeiros 

The US-China relationship is changing in fundamental ways. Currently, the United States and China are engaged in an intensive and costly trade war that, even if resolved through negotiations, will likely not provide the basis for long-term stability. Indeed, it may carry the seeds of future confrontation. More broadly, many of the fundamental ideas that once guided the relationship are being called into question, such as engagement, cooperation, and convergence. 

The institutional structure of the relationship is also being tested. The well-developed and hard-worn channels of communication have been allowed to atrophy. On both sides, and especially in China, bureaucratic processes are straining to keep up with the growing diversity and complexity of a relationship that is global in scope and consequence. Nevertheless, the United States and China have arrived at a point—perhaps a turning point—that requires we ask and attempt to answer some fundamental questions about how we got here and where the relationship might go: what are the sources of the current tensions? Which ones will persist, and which ones may shift due to political and/or economic changes in either country? How much of this is a function of President Trump’s and/or President Xi’s decisions? What are the possible trajectories for US-China ties, and what should the United States do about it?

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