Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts

8 December 2018

The Economy of the Future Won’t Rely on Money

Elvia Wilk

Stefan Heidenreich believes that some day, money will seem like an ancient religion. In his recent book Money: For a Non-money Economy, the German philosopher and media theorist speculates on how the money-based global economy could soon transition to an entirely different system based on the algorithmic matching of goods and services. Such a system could match people with what they need at a given moment without relying on the concept of a stable, universal price — and, just possibly, do away with the vast inequities caused by the market.

If you find the idea of an economy without money hard to imagine, you’re not alone. As the saying goes, it’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism. But that very difficulty proves Heidenreich’s main point: We have to imagine what may sound like wild possibilities now in order to steer the future before it’s upon us. Getting rid of money could lead to what he calls a “leftist utopia” of equal distribution — or it could enable mass surveillance and algorithmic control on a whole new scale. Faced with the second option, Heidenreich says, we have no choice but to try to envision the first.

1 December 2018

Vice President Pence in Asia: Economic Outcomes


Vice President Mike Pence conducted a weeklong tour of Asia this month, standing in for President Trump at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and events organized by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) where he announced a series of economic initiatives with regional partners and held talks with numerous heads of government. In his public remarks, Pence reinforced the impression that the United States views itself in a zero-sum economic competition with China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Q1: What happened at APEC, and why does it matter?

A1: The economic centerpiece of Pence’s trip was the annual APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Papua New Guinea. For the first time in the forum’s history, the meeting concluded without a joint communiqué. According to Papua New Guinea prime minister Peter O’Neill, disagreements on trade between “the two big giants in the room”—China and the United States—were the cause of the impasse. The U.S. and Chinese foreign ministry statements on the matter, as well as media reports, suggest that the United States’ proposed language regarding “combat[ing] unfair trade practices,” which the Chinese side found unacceptable, viewing this as “excusing protectionism and unilateralism.” According to one report, the Chinese side also took umbrage at the wording on sustainable development. Although a source told CNN that every country but China had reached consensus on the communiqué, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi accused “individual economies” of refusing to accept “reasonable advice for revision” from other parties as well.

30 November 2018

The Geopolitics of the Quad

Arzan Tarapore

In the wake of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, meeting in Singapore on November 15, Arzan Tarapore considers how this informal grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States could mount a response to China’s revisionism.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, met again in Singapore on November 15 on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit. An informal grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, the Quad held its third meeting of officials since it was reformed in November 2017, after a decade-long hiatus. The meeting in Singapore covered a range of security and economic issues under the rubric of supporting a “free, open, and inclusive rules-based order”—in a veiled reference to China’s revisionist policies—and declared the group’s continued deference to “ASEAN centrality” in the region’s institutional architecture. Once again, the group stopped short of announcing any combined military maneuvers or measures that directly push back on Chinese military activities.

29 November 2018

Is It Poor Journalism Or Actual Fake News?

by Felix Richter

Sparked by reports uncovering the systematic spreading of false information on the internet to influence elections and fueled by U.S. president Trump's distrust and hatred of the media, the debate over "fake news" and misinformation has been one of the most important issues of the past year.

According to the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2018, 54 percent of global news consumers are very or extremely concerned about what is real and what is fake on the internet when it comes to news and only 44 percent of the more than 70,000 respondents think that most news is trustworthy.

Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.

By Tim Wu
Source Link

In the 1930s it contributed to the rise of fascism. Alarmingly, we are experimenting again with a monopolized economy.

In the aftermath of the Second World War, an urgent question presented itself: How can we prevent the rise of fascism from happening again? If over the years that question became one of mostly historical interest, it has again become pressing, with the growing success of populist, nationalist and even neofascist movements all around the world.

Common answers to the question stress the importance of a free press, the rule of law, stable government, robust civic institutions and common decency. But as undoubtedly important as these factors are, we too often overlook something else: the threat to democracy posed by monopoly and excessive corporate concentration — what the Supreme Court justice Louis Brandeis called the “curse of bigness.” We must not forget the economic origins of fascism, lest we risk repeating the most calamitous error of the 20th century.

KMT Shocks With Its Success in Taiwan Elections

By James X. Morris

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was handed a rebuke in the island’s 2018 midterm elections on Saturday, with voters showing widespread dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of affairs over the past two years. The DPP, which had seen significant victories since Taiwan’s 2014 midterms, lost heavily on November 24, losing in seven of the 13 counties and cities up for grabs. Particularly devastating were the series of defeats suffered in the island’s south, the traditional stronghold of the DPP.

President Tsai Ing-wen, who rode the 2016 wave into the island’s highest office, tendered her resignation as chairperson of the DPP in a hastily assembled press conference over the weekend (she will, however, remain as president). Her premier, William Lai, also offered his resignation but Tsai has asked for him to continue at his post.

25 November 2018

7% Of All Jobs Will Be Automated By 2034, And 'No Government Is Prepared' Says Economist

Michael Rundle

Almost half of all jobs could be automated by computers within two decades and "no government is prepared" for the tsunami of social change that will follow, according to the Economist.

The magazine's 2014 analysis of the impact of technology paints a pretty bleak picture of the future.

It says that while innovation (aka "the elixir of progress") has always resulted in job losses, usually economies have eventually been able to develop new roles for those workers to compensate, such as in the industrial revolution of the 19th century, or the food production revolution of the 20th century.

But the pace of change this time around appears to be unprecedented, its leader column claims. And the result is a huge amount of uncertainty for both developed and under-developed economies about where the next 'lost generation' is going to find work.

How the Blockchain Will Impact the Financial Sector


Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

24 November 2018

Is This Bitcoin Armageddon? Popular Cryptocurrency Is Worth 75 Percent Less Than It Was A Year Ago


My, how the worm has turned. The surge of Bitcoin over the past several years has been nothing short of meteoric — until now. After rising to $20K per bitcoin in 2017, Bitcoin is trading this morning (Monday/Nov. 19, 2018) — down $300, to $5,262, less than what it costs to produce a single coin at around $6K per coin. Last week, bitcoin “took an abrupt turn, down 14 percent in just one four-hour period, with other digital coins experiencing similar losses,” Victoria Bell wrote on the November 14, 2018 edition of the DailyMail. McAfee’s Ethereum, fell $182.41, with other smaller firms like Litecoin, and XRP dropping more than 17 percent. “The slump has caused a wave of selling in the digital currency and other crypto assets in what has been a prolonged market slump that began earlier this year,” Ms. Bell wrote.

23 November 2018

The Oil Price Is Now Controlled By Just Three Men

Julian Lee

OPEC has lost what control of the oil market it ever had. The actions (or tweets) of three men — Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman — will determine the course of oil prices in 2019 and beyond. But of course they each want different things.

While OPEC struggles to find common purpose, the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia dominate global supply. Together they produce more oil than the 15 members of OPEC. All three are pumping at record rates and each could raise output again next year, although they may not all choose to do so. 

Big Beasts

22 November 2018

Food Security Rests on Trade

ANGEL GURRÍA , JOSÉ GRAZIANO DA SILVA

Food production will suffer some of the most immediate and brutal effects of climate change, with some regions of the world suffering far more than others. Only through unhindered global trade can we ensure that high-quality, nutritious food reaches those who need it most.

PARIS – From farm to fork, the international community is facing growing challenges in eradicating hunger and malnutrition. And yet while some parts of the world are obviously better endowed than others in terms of climate, soil, water, and geography, there is plenty of food to go around. So why is food insecurity a problem for so many people in so many countries?

21 November 2018

Delay, Deny and Deflect: How Facebook’s Leaders Fought Through Crisis

By Sheera Frenkel, Nicholas Confessore, Cecilia Kang, Matthew Rosenberg and Jack Nicas

Sheryl Sandberg was seething.

Inside Facebook’s Menlo Park, Calif., headquarters, top executives gathered in the glass-walled conference room of its founder, Mark Zuckerberg. It was September 2017, more than a year after Facebook engineers discovered suspicious Russia-linked activity on its site, an early warning of the Kremlin campaign to disrupt the 2016 American election. Congressional and federal investigators were closing in on evidence that would implicate the company.

But it wasn’t the looming disaster at Facebook that angered Ms. Sandberg. It was the social network’s security chief, Alex Stamos, who had informed company board members the day before that Facebook had yet to contain the Russian infestation. Mr. Stamos’s briefing had prompted a humiliating boardroom interrogation of Ms. Sandberg, Facebook’s chief operating officer, and her billionaire boss. She appeared to regard the admission as a betrayal.

Say Hello To The Affects Of the Trade War

by Steven Hansen

In past posts I have stated that the pundits expectations of a devastating trade war was overblown. For October, there were a record number of loaded sea container imports that passed through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

The graph below shows the significant growth of import containers in October.

20 November 2018

Say Hello To The Affects Of the Trade War

by Steven Hansen

In past posts I have stated that the pundits expectations of a devastating trade war was overblown. For October, there were a record number of loaded sea container imports that passed through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

The graph below shows the significant growth of import containers in October.

18 November 2018

Infographic Of The Day: The 80 Trillion World Economy In One Chart


The latest estimate from the World Bank puts global GDP at roughly $80 trillion in nominal terms for 2017.

Today’s chart from HowMuch.net uses this data to show all major economies in a visualization called a Voronoi diagram – let’s dive into the stats to learn more.

The World’s Top 10 Economies

Here are the world’s top 10 economies, which together combine for a whopping two-thirds of global GDP.

17 November 2018

How to fight a trade war: Turn the other cheek

Shanta Devarajan

If the current trade tensions between the United States and its major trade partners, especially China, escalate into a full-blown trade war, what should developing countries do? In a recent paper, my co-authors and I try to answer this question by using a global, general-equilibrium model to first simulate a major increase in U.S. tariffs (up to Smoot-Hawley levels of the 1930s) and a retaliation in kind by China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Japan. We then explore four possible options for developing countries (except China and Mexico):

Sign regional trade agreements (RTAs) with all countries outside the U.S
“Turn the other cheek”—option 3 plus eliminate all tariffs on imports from the U.S.

15 November 2018

Asia Summit and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit


COLM QUINN: So I’d like to just begin. My name’s Colm Quinn I’m the director for new media and audience development here at CSIS. And I’ll be moderating today’s press briefing. Thank

you all for coming. I just want to give you a quick note for housekeeping. We will be transcribing this discussion. So when you are asking your questions, if you want to identify yourself and you outlet, make it easier on you, we will then be sending out that transcript later on today.

So let me introduce my colleagues who will be speaking today in this order. To my immediate left, Matthew Goodman. He’s senior vice president and our Simon chair in political economy. He’s also a senior advisor for Asian economics. And he was the coordinator for the APEC and East Asia Summits, and including the G-8 and G-20 summits in the Obama White House. To his left is Amy Searight, senior advisor and director in the Southeast Asia program at CSIS. Bill Reinsch, senior advisor and Scholl chair in international business at CSIS. Rick Rossow, senior advisor and Wadhwani chair in U.S.-India policy studies, and Chris Johnson, senior advisor and Freeman chair in China studies at CSIS. And then joining us on the phone is Victor Cha, who is the senior advisor and Korea chair at CSIS. And so we’ll all be hearing from them today.

13 November 2018

From Economic Crisis to World War III

QIAN LIU

The response to the 2008 economic crisis has relied far too much on monetary stimulus, in the form of quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates, and included far too little structural reform. This means that the next crisis could come soon – and pave the way for a large-scale military conflict.

BEIJING – The next economic crisis is closer than you think. But what you should really worry about is what comes after: in the current social, political, and technological landscape, a prolonged economic crisis, combined with rising income inequality, could well escalate into a major global military conflict.

9 November 2018

New Players in a Dollarized World

Michał Romanowski

WARSAW: The offensive US trade policy as well as economic sanctions Washington imposes on its adversaries have triggered a shift in the global currency landscape – and, as a result, steady recession from the dollar-denominated system. Called “de-dollarization,” this phenomenon fits into the wider narrative of a multipolar world of which a monetary order would be an integral component. Countries like Russia and China, given their international heft – ranked as second and twelfth leading economies, respectively – lead this process. Others including Iran, Turkey and major European countries are not lagging far behind.

Transition from the US dollar-based environment is possible, but will be slow and the new reality will involve a competition from several pretenders for the status of the dominant currency.

8 November 2018

The Economic Crisis Is Over. Populism Is Forever.

BY JAMES TRAUB

Angela Merkel couldn’t have remained Germany’s chancellor forever. Even Helmut Kohl, who was chairman of the Christian Democratic Union and Germany’s longest-serving postwar chancellor, had to step down after 16 years. Kohl’s tenure ended in the usual way: In 1998, with unemployment and economic dissatisfaction rising, voters chose the left-of-center Gerhard Schröder over the right-of-center Kohl. But today, unemployment is at an almost historic low of 3.4 percent. Both youth unemployment and long-term unemployment, typical drivers of the anti-incumbent spirit, are low (though so is annual growth, at 2 percent).

Yet Merkel announced this week that she is stepping down as party chair, which strongly suggests she will not serve out the remainder of her term. She has been done in, above all, by the refugee crisis, for which a growing number of German voters have blamed her ever since she famously told them, in the late summer of 2015, “Wir schaffen das”(“We can do this”). Many of those voters want to reclaim what they have suddenly come to regard as an endangered identity.