Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic. Show all posts

17 October 2018

Could An Artificial Intelligence Be Considered A Person Under The Law?

by Roman V. Yampolskiy,

Humans aren’t the only people in society - at least according to the law. In the U.S., corporations have been given rights of free speech and religion. Some natural features also have person-like rights. But both of those required changes to the legal system. A new argument has laid a path for artificial intelligence systems to be recognized as people too - without any legislation, court rulings or other revisions to existing law. Legal scholar Shawn Bayer has shown that anyone can confer legal personhood on a computer system, by putting it in control of a limited liability corporation in the U.S. If that maneuver is upheld in courts, artificial intelligence systems would be able to own property, sue, hire lawyers and enjoy freedom of speech and other protections under the law. In my view, human rights and dignity would suffer as a result.
The corporate loophole

16 October 2018

What worries me about the U.S. economy

By Raghuram Rajan
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The U.S. economy certainly appears as if it is in an ideal place: unemployment is at its lowest in nearly half a century, and the number of people voluntarily leaving jobs to find new ones, an indicator of their confidence in the economy, is at a 20-year high. Economic growth this year is likely to be around 3 percent, more than what most economists think the economy is capable of in the medium term. Inflation is moderate. But as the current stock market nosedive reminds us, there are risks that could jolt the economy out of its strong position. They have to do with three related factors: timing, debt and slowing growth in the rest of the world.

12 October 2018

Will New Technologies Help or Harm Developing Countries?


Trade and technology present an opportunity when they are able to leverage existing capabilities, and thereby provide a more direct and reliable path to development. When they demand complementary and costly investments, they are no longer a shortcut around traditional manufacturing-led development. CAMBRIDGE – New technologies reduce the prices of goods and services to which they are applied. They also lead to the creation of new products. Consumers benefit from these improvements, regardless of whether they live in rich or poor countries.

21 September 2018

Why US multilateral leadership was key to the global financial crisis response

Douglas A. Rediker

Ten years after the onset of the global financial crisis, one of its most under-appreciated legacies is the strong U.S. embrace of multilateralism to address growing financial interlinkages around the world. U.S. leadership and engagement at international meetings like the G-20 and at institutions like the IMF proved crucial in crisis response ten years ago. While current “ten years later” pieces are largely focused on the domestic legislative and regulatory response, the crucial role played by U.S. multilateral leadership and engagement should not be forgotten. As the Trump administration considers how to balance its America First doctrine with continued global engagement, it is worth remembering the events of 2008-2009 and its lessons.

20 September 2018

Food Fight

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Humans have always depended on the sea. For as long as there have been fishermen, there have been conflicts over fish. And though it may seem anachronistic, the odds that a squabble over fishing rights could turn into a major armed conflict are rising. The return of great-power competition has actually increased the likelihood of a war over fish. The past 17 years of the fight against terrorism, and Washington’s renewed focus on developing high-end capabilities to prepare for great-power conflict, have led to a lack of preparation for a low-end, seemingly mundane but increasingly likely source of conflict in the world: food.

17 September 2018

Oil Production Is at Record Levels. So Why Are Oil Prices Heading Higher?

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The world is now pumping and consuming more oil than it ever has, with output from big producers such as the United States and Saudi Arabia at or near record levels. But oil prices are still stubbornly high, and lots of barrels from Iran and Venezuela are all but certain to disappear from the market in the weeks to come. That means the world needs to find a way to keep the economy supplied with oil or risk even higher prices right as global economic headwinds are intensifying.

16 September 2018

Outperformers: High-growth emerging economies and the companies that propel them

By Jonathan Woetzel, Anu Madgavkar, Jeongmin Seong, James Manyika, Kevin Sneader, Oliver Tonby, Andres Cadena, Rajat Gupta, Acha Leke, Hayoung Kim, and Shishir Gupta

Some emerging economies have grown much faster and more consistently than others. Underlying these success stories is a pro-growth policy agenda and the standout role of large companies. Emerging economies have accounted for almost two-thirds of the world’s GDP growth and more than half of new consumption over the past 15 years. Yet economic performance among individual countries varies substantially.  Some emerging economies have managed to achieve strong and consistent growth over a long period. These are the outperformers. What’s the secret to their success? 

12 September 2018

Rethinking Belt-and-Road Economics

By Philip Bowring

HONG KONG: China has launched a new publicity drive to promote the benefits of its Belt and Road Initiative – and the surprise is that a publicity campaign is necessary at all. BRI was unveiled in late 2013 to build infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Europe, strengthening trade linkages via new versions of old land and sea routes between east and west, showing China as a strong global payer, financing viable projects and not projecting strategic power. Soon afterward, the initiative was widely seen as a propaganda masterstroke, providing badly needed investment in roads, railways, power and ports to countries in dire need of such infrastructure while showing China’s commitment to open trade. Chinese money was seen as cheap, available and without some of the strings attached to loans from the likes of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. As part of the overall goal, China also sponsored creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, gaining support from European countries while the US stood aloof.

11 September 2018

A decade after the global financial crisis: What has (and hasn’t) changed?

By Susan Lund, Asheet Mehta, James Manyika, and Diana Goldshtein

In the early 2000s, US real estate seemed irresistible, and a heady run-up in prices led consumers, banks, and investors alike to load up on debt. Exotic financial instruments designed to diffuse the risks instead magnified and obscured them as they attracted investors from around the globe. Cracks appeared in 2007 when US home prices began to decline, eventually causing the collapse of two large hedge funds loaded up with subprime mortgage securities. Yet as the summer of 2008 waned, few imagined that Lehman Brothers was about to go under—let alone that it would set off a global liquidity crisis. The damage ultimately set off the first global recession since World War II and planted the seeds of a sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. Millions of households lost their jobs, their homes, and their savings.

The Greek Financial Crisis May Be Over, but Greece, and the Eurozone, Will Never Be the Same

After three consecutive bailout programs, the Greek economy is growing again. But structural problems, ranging from state bureaucracy to tax evasion, remain extant.
Greece's massive debt, which currently stands at above 180 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), will be a national burden for decades. Greece also faces the long-term consequences of mass emigration and a subsequent brain drain, which will make it harder for the country's economy to recover.

Brand New Left, Same Old Problems

By Suzanne Berger

Globalization’s friends are fast defecting. Some economists who once extolled the virtues of free trade and the free flow of capital now point out that globalization has brought smaller gains than were once claimed, while destroying working-class jobs and communities. The American public’s views of foreign trade have grown more positive as the U.S. economy has recovered from the Great Recession, but in 2014, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center, only 20 percent of Americans thought that trade created new jobs, and just 17 percent believed that it raised wages. A populist anti-trade backlash is in full swing.

9 September 2018

The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisis

WHEN historians gaze back at the early 21st century, they will identify two seismic shocks. The first was the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001, the second the global financial crisis, which boiled over ten years ago this month with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. September 11th led to wars, Lehman’s bankruptcy to an economic and political reckoning. Just as the fighting continues, so the reckoning is far from over.

6 September 2018

As the Economy Dips, Venezuelans Flee

Venezuela is facing an economic crisis. Its currency has plummeted, oil revenue has dropped and inflation has skyrocketed. Shortages of food and medicine have been widely reported. Now Venezuelans are fleeing to other countries in Latin America to escape the crisis. These countries are struggling to cope, and some have even asked for international aid to help manage the surge in migrants.

3 September 2018

John Maynard Keynes: The Best Economist Since 1899?

Written by Frank Li

In a previous post (Milton Friedman: A Man of the Past?), I concluded that Milton Friedman, an extreme advocator of "free market" and individualism, is mostly an economist of the past. In this post, I will highlight John Maynard Keynes, a balanced advocator of both "free market" and "managed market", as the best economist since 1899.

1. Who is John Maynard Keynes?

Below is an excerpt from Wikipedia - John Maynard Keynes.
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes[2] CB FBA (/keɪnz/ KAYNZ; 5 June 1883 - 21 April 1946), was a British economist whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics and the economic policies of governments. He built on and greatly refined earlier work on the causes of business cycles, and was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century and the founder of modern macroeconomic theory.[3][4][5][6] His ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots.

20 August 2018

The reality of digital in oil and gas

By Matt Rogers

Digital has been the big buzz word in the industry for some time now – but what exactly does it mean. McKinsey & Company Senior Partner Matt Rogerssat down with the Financial Times US Industry and Energy Editor, Ed Crooksin the first of the Digital Dialogues in Oil & Gas series to discuss the impact of digital in the industry.

For more on this conversation, click here.

19 August 2018

Why Hitting the Gas on Car Tariffs Could Stall Everyone

The United States will continue to threaten tariffs on the imports of automobiles in an attempt to gain leverage in critical trade negotiations, although it's possible that Washington will eventually enact such tariffs. Mexico and Canada might escape strong measures since they would also inflict domestic harm due to the nature of NAFTA integration, but Washington will strive to extract concessions from the two countries by threatening such measures. Germany and the European Union — which has little overall integration with the U.S. auto market — are most likely to face tariffs, even if Brussels has sought to escape the measures by offering a trade deal to the United States. At moderate risk of tariffs, Japan and especially South Korea will hope to avoid U.S. measures by highlighting their automakers' investments in the United States.

17 August 2018

The Changing Risk Landscape

This graphic plots the change in the perceived likelihood and impact of various societal, technological, geopolitical and environmental risks between 2012 and 2018. For more on resilience and the evolution of deterrence, see Tim Prior’s chapter for Strategic Trends 2018 here. For more CSS charts, maps and graphics on risk and resilience, click here.

12 August 2018

Vietnam's New Cybersecurity Law Will Hurt Economic Growth

by David Shear

As U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam from 2011 to 2014, I would console myself when faced with a diplomatic setback that Vietnam has always achieved progress by taking two steps forward and one step back. However, the passage of a restrictive cybersecurity law by Vietnam’s National Assembly is a giant step back—one that comes at the expense of Vietnam’s small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in particular. In May 2017, the Vietnamese Government released an ambitious directive to guide the country through the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). Directive 16, as it is officially known, instructed government agencies to improve Vietnam’s competitiveness by leveraging digital and communications technology. It warned against falling behind in the development of digital capabilities and exhorted government agencies to “enable people and enterprises to easily and fairly grasp the opportunities for digital content development.”

31 July 2018

BRICS Summit In Johannesburg: Here's What The Five Countries Are Looking For

by Xuebing Cao

All eyes are on Johannesburg for the 2018 BRICS summit, as the likes of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi take their places at the table. It marks the tenth annual gathering for this international organisation of the leading emerging economies. So what can we expect? The summit of the BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa - started in June 2009 at Yekaterinburg, when Russia hosted the leaders of this bloc, though it did not originally include South Africa. BRIC became a formal institution the following year, aimed at facilitating global political and economic transformation, and South Africa officially joined in 2011.

12 July 2018

Global Economic Prospects, June 2018

Published semiannually, Global Economic Prospects includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries. Global activity is firming broadly as expected. Manufacturing and trade are picking up, confidence is improving, and international financing conditions remain benign. Global growth is projected to strengthen in 2018-19, in line with January forecasts. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), growth is predicted to recover in 2017-19, as obstacles to growth in commodity exporters diminish amid moderately rising commodity prices, and activity in commodity importers remains robust. Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. These include increased trade protectionism; elevated economic policy uncertainty; the possibility of financial market disruptions; and, over the longer term, weaker potential growth. A policy priority for EMDEs is to rebuild monetary and fiscal space that could be drawn on were such risks to materialize. Over the longer term, structural policies that support investment and trade are critical to boost EMDE productivity and potential growth.