Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts

23 July 2018

The EU and the Iran nuclear deal: how to proceed?

Erzsébet N. Rózsa, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

The European Union has played a complementary role to that of the United States over many issues in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including the relationship with the Islamic Republic and the Iranian nuclear programme. The 2015 nuclear deal, which would not have been possible without US support, has so far been the main foreign policy success for the EU. Beyond the deal’s economic and security benefits and the moral obligations involved, therefore, the EU has vital political interests in keeping the deal alive and ensuring it is implemented. For Iran, the nuclear deal means that it could avoid war and preserve the regime – despite domestic economic and public concerns – while maintaining its right to use nuclear energy for civilian purposes, a symbol of modernity and regional power status. With the deal, the EU and its UN Security Council (UNSC) permanent members (the United Kingdom and France), plus Germany, have been – successfully from the Iranian point of view – distanced from the United States.

GAME OVER? EUROPE'S CYBER PROBLEM

Camino Mortera-Martinez

The EU knows that a cyber war is happening, but not how to fight it. To be up to speed, the bloc needs to update its cyber security plans.  The EU’s cyber security plans have been in the spotlight since a series of high profile cyber attacks hit Europe in 2017. But very few people understand what a cyber war really is, how to fight cyber crime and what role, if any, the EU has in all this.  Europe’s cyber security strategy covers two things: cyber crime, such as online fraud; and cyber attacks, for instance hacking into a nuclear plant. Cyber crime is lucrative, and is expanding rapidly. Cyber attacks have become one of the weapons of choice of governments and criminal organisations around the world. Both cyber threats can come from state and non-state actors.  The EU has been good at dealing with cyber crime, by doing what it does best: passing laws. But Europe’s ability to prevent and respond to cyber attacks lags behind the offensive cyber capabilities of adversaries like Russia and North Korea. 

SECURING THE SUWAŁKI CORRIDOR


Today, the Center for European Policy (CEPA) releases its latest analytical report: “Securing The Suwałki Corridor: Strategy, Statecraft, Deterrence, and Defense.” Conducted under the auspices of CEPA Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies LTG (Ret.) Ben Hodges, the report offers the most comprehensive analysis yet published on the Suwałki Corridor problem-set and presents actionable recommendations for both transatlantic policymakers and frontline practitioners. The Suwałki Corridor, a 65-kilometer wide stretch of land between Belarus and Kaliningrad, is some of the most important territory within NATO’s borders. It is NATO’s physical link between the Baltic littoral to the north and the European plain to the south, containing only two narrow highways and one railway line. If Russian forces ever threatened the free movement of NATO personnel and equipment through it, land reinforcement of the Baltic States would be exceptionally difficult, and NATO’s credibility as a security guarantor could be seriously undermined. How should NATO defend it?

22 July 2018

Europe Should Call Trump’s Bluff

BY GARVAN WALSHE

“Very well, alone” are the words beneath the famous June 1940 cartoon by David Low depicting a solitary British soldier facing a rough sea and enemy bombers. France had fallen, Panzer divisions had reached the English Channel, and Britain was the only major power holding out against the Nazis. At this point in the greatest struggle between freedom and tyranny, the Land of the Free hadn’t shown up yet. “America First” — the slogan of the isolationists in Congress in the early days of World War II — would tie President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s hands for another 18 months as Europe was left to its fate.

Why the U.K. Has Few Options in the Brexit Negotiations


Britain’s attempt this week to lay out a plan for it to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019, didn’t go smoothly. Ahead of the release on Thursday of a white paper detailing Britain’s Brexit agenda, two of Theresa May’s ministers quit, threatening the survival of her government. Then, a visiting Donald Trump all but killed Britain’s hopes for a trade deal with the U.S. In an interview with The Sun newspaper, he said, “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the U.K., so it will probably kill the deal.” (On Friday, Trump then contradicted himself during a press conference with May, where he said the two countries could work out a “great” trade deal following Brexit.)

21 July 2018

Ukraine's Promising Path to Reform

By Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander J. Motyl

At the recent G-7 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump was reported to have told fellow world leaders that “Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.” Small wonder: for years, U.S. government officials and their European counterparts have publicly castigated Ukrainefor dragging its feet on corruption. So too have Western media outlets, whose narrative often echoes the fictitious Russian talking point that Ukraine is a failing, if not failed, state.

The British History of Brexit

ROBERT SKIDELSKY

LONDON – Since June 23, 2016, when 52% of British voters backed withdrawing from the European Union, the “Brexit” debate has been tearing British politics apart. Although the Brexit referendum was non-binding, then-Prime Minister David Cameron’s government, expecting a vote in favor of “Remain,” had promised to honor the result. Britain, late to join the EU, will be the first member state to leave it, with the exit date set for March 2019.

20 July 2018

Muslim Immigration and France's Jewish Community

MICHEL GURFINKIEL

Why are leftwing and rightwing radicals getting so powerful in contemporary France? Essentially, they tackle an issue that the classic political class prefers to ignore: the demographic upheaval known as “Great Replacement,” an expression coined some years ago by a talented if controversial writer, Renaud Camus. Immigration from non-European and non-Judeo-Christian countries, and especially from Muslim countries, has reached such proportions that the gradual replacement of the native populace and culture by a new population and a new culture seems entirely plausible. Leftwing radicals tend to welcome it as a change for the better. Rightwing radicals see it as a cosmic disaster – except for some of them who are ready to strike an alliance with radical Islam in order to topple “plutocratic” and “Jewish” Western democracy.

EuropeTrump Administration Europe in the New Era of Great Power Competition

By Alina Polyakova and Benjamin Haddad

In the run-up to last week’s NATO summit and the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, European leaders could hardly hide their anxiety. In recent weeks, Trump has gone on a rhetorical warpath against the United States’ greatest allies. In a rally in June, he claimed that the EU “was set up to take advantage of the United States.” Earlier that month, Trump attacked German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she was facing a rebellion in her own coalition over immigration. “The people of Germany are turning against their leadership,” he tweeted. Trump also reportedly asked French President Emmanuel Macron to leave the EU in order to get a better bilateral trade deal with the United States. These latest attacks came on the heels of Trump’s refusal to join the G-7 joint statement, his imposition of new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from U.S. allies, and his proposal to readmit Russia to the G-7. On the eve of the meeting with Putin, the U.S. president called the European Union a “foe.” The message seems clear: “America first” means Europe alone. 

Future Defense, Europe Must Get Equipped For Post-U.S. Order

Anne Applebaum

WASHINGTON — After many weeks of claiming, dishonestly, that European allies "owe us a tremendous amount of money for many years back" — in fact, Europeans spend far more money on European defense than does the United States — and after referring to NATO members as "delinquent" and worse, President Donald Trump appears to have handed America's European allies an ultimatum: Pay up, spend 2 percent of gross domestic product on the military, do it fast — or the United States will pull out. We can "go it alone," he told them, by some accounts. During the news conference he gave afterward, Trump even claimed Europeans had caved in to his demands: They had agreed to reach the 2 percent target faster, he said, and they could possibly increase it to 4 percent in the future. This claim was immediately disputed by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who pointed to the summit statement, which says nothing of the sort. The NATO secretary-general evaded the 4 percent question. The British and German leaders canceled planned news conferences altogether.

Europe’s Dependence on the U.S. Was All Part of the Plan

By CLAIRE BERLINSKI 

As feared, the president of the United States arrived at last week’s NATO summit in a mood of preposterous spleen, profound contempt and shocking rudeness. He insisted on sharing before the cameras imaginary facts that hadn’t a thing to do with the summit agenda, and he refused to listen to anyone who tried, however gently, to correct him. In the words of Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, “These are not negotiating tactics. They are the tactics of someone who does not want a deal.” In a private meeting, Donald Trump reportedly threatened that unless the allies boosted their military spending beyond previous agreements by January, the United States would “go it alone.” Nicholas Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, implored Americans not to “normalize” this. “He is the first American president since Harry Truman,” Burns noted, “to not believe that NATO is central to American national security interests.” And Burns is a Republican.

Europe’s Dependence on the U.S. Was All Part of the Plan


As feared, the president of the United States arrived at this week’s NATO summit in a mood of preposterous spleen, profound contempt and shocking rudeness. He insisted on sharing before the cameras imaginary facts that hadn’t a thing to do with the summit agenda, and he refused to listen to anyone who tried, however gently, to correct him. In the words of Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, “These are not negotiating tactics. They are the tactics of someone who does not want a deal.” In a private meeting, Trump reportedly threatened that unless the allies boosted their military spending beyond previous agreements by January, the United States would “go it alone.” Nicholas Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, implored Americans not to “normalize” this. “He is the first American president since Harry Truman,” Burns noted, “to not believe that NATO is central to American national security interests.” And Burns is a Republican.

19 July 2018

Exclusive: China presses Europe for anti-U.S. alliance on trade

Robin EmmottNoah Barkin

China is putting pressure on the European Union to issue a strong joint statement against President Donald Trump’s trade policies at a summit later this month but is facing resistance, European officials said. In meetings in Brussels, Berlin and Beijing, senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier Liu He and the Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, have proposed an alliance between the two economic powers and offered to open more of the Chinese market in a gesture of goodwill. One proposal has been for China and the European Union to launch joint action against the United States at the World Trade Organization.

18 July 2018

A Conventional Arms Race

Yahel Arnon, Yoel Guzansky

While many are justifiably worried about a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, and the regional and international agendas continue to focus on this issue, the region itself is at the height of a conventional arms race. The motivation behind the purchases is linked mainly to the fear of Iran, internal regional competition, and the desire of Arab countries, headed by the Gulf states, to acquire status and prestige for themselves. However, the quantity and quality of the weapons reaching the region could damage Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME).

Trends in Regional Empowerment

17 July 2018

The Surprising Promise of the Trump-Putin Summit

By Michael Kimmage

Historic U.S.-Russian meetings tend to occur outside of Washington and Moscow. Franklin Delano Roosevelt first encountered Joseph Stalin in Tehran. At the end of World War II, they met again at Yalta, a name that would thereafter signify Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. Harry Truman’s one and only meeting with Stalin was in Potsdam, a suburb of Berlin. John F. Kennedy had a shaky meeting with Nikita Khrushchev in Geneva, while Ronald Reagan had a memorable collision with Mikhail Gorbachev in Reykjavik.

16 July 2018

Brexit, Defence, and the EU’s Quest for ‘Strategic Autonomy’

By Nick Witney

There is more joy in heaven (or so we are told, on the best available authority) over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine already-righteous folk. On that basis, fatted calves in the vicinity of Brussels should have been keeping a very low profile as the British, after long years decrying and obstructing European defence integration, have rediscovered an unconditional commitment to Europe’s security, and pressed for the closest possible post-Brexit partnership.

15 July 2018

The Meaning of the Western Alliance

DANIEL FRIED

Even before he left for Europe, Donald Trump had started with the demands and acrimony he brought with him to this week’s nato summit. So right beforehand, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, pushed back. He urged America to appreciate its allies, pointing out that America didn’t have that many. Trump’s tone at the summit indicated he was more interested in hectoring them about military spending. But Tusk’s own biography shows exactly why the alliance is about so much more than defense budgets.

THE NIGHTMARE OF THE DARK: THE SECURITY FEARS THAT KEEP EUROPEANS AWAKE AT NIGHT


Introduction

The security of the European Union is being challenged like never before. Central tenets of the international system that Europeans helped build are eroding or even disintegrating one by one. Great power competition is increasingly shaping Europeans’ security environment, while other security threats are also on the rise, from terrorism and cyber attacks to climate change. The EU now faces security threats from its east and south – and an uncertain ally in the West. To the east, a new kind of uneasy neighbourly relationship with Russia is developing – one that appears to involve Europeans accepting Russian meddling in their political affairs, from deliberate interference in elections to cyber attacks on European companies, systems, and political machinery. Further east, China continues to deepen its influence on EU states through trade and investment in the Union and its neighbourhood.

World Cup 2018: Croatia’s Conflict Resolution

Ivan Sršen

The summer of 1990, for those who lived in what was then Yugoslavia, was something like the summer of 1939 in Europe: warm and easy-going, spent mostly on the beach with a cold beer in hand, or—if you were far from any sea or lake—in the shade of a tree or a tall building, comfortably cooling your feet in a washbowl. No one expected the sudden break-up of that Balkan country, or at least not me, then an eleven-year-old boy.

What America Gets Out of NATO

By Nicholas Burns

Donald Trump prepared for this week’s NATO summit by doing what no president had done before — making a case that the alliance is a bad deal for the American people. Last week in Great Falls, Mont., he said that he had told Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, “I don’t know how much protection we get by protecting you.” Mr. Trump has been even tougher on the European Union, branding it “as bad as Nafta” and adding, “Sometimes our worst enemies are our so-called friends.”