Showing posts with label Important Papers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Important Papers. Show all posts

15 October 2018

THE OCTOBER 2018 ISSUE OF THE CTC SENTINEL NOW ONLINE

by Hassan Hassan

Abstract: With the collapse of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate, the global jihadi movement is in a state of flux. But rather than being about to enter a period of mergers or takeovers, the global jihadi movement for the foreseeable future is likely to be led by two distinct and rival groups. While the relative fortunes of the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida have oscillated in recent years, developments in the jihadi environment in Syria have hardened longstanding differences between them in doctrine and approach. Neither group is on the brink of fracturing nor likely to accept the legitimacy of the other in the coming years. And this will sustain the divide.

Introduction: Michèle Coninsx was appointed Assistant Secretary-General and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on August 11, 2017. Ms. Coninsx took up her functions on November 2, 2017. Prior to her position at the United Nations, Ms. Coninsx was President of Eurojust—the European Union agency tasked with dealing with judicial cooperation in criminal matters—2012-2017, after having served as its vice president for five years. In addition, Ms. Coninsx was National Member for Belgium at Eurojust and Chair of Eurojust’s Counter-Terrorism Team. Before joining Eurojust, Ms. Coninsx was a Federal Prosecutor (Magistrat Fédéral) in Belgium dealing with terrorism and organized crime. She served for nine years as an expert in aviation security for the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

7 October 2018

NEW ISSUE: THE US ARMY WAR COLLEGE QUARTERLY – PARAMETERS

New Issue: The US Army War College Quarterly – Parameters – U.S. Army War College – Strategic Studies Institute

Special Commentary

by Jacqueline E. Whitt and Elizabeth A. Perazzo

Teaching Strategy

by Andrew A. Hill and Stephen J. Gerras

by Jean-Loup Samaan

18 September 2018

Strategic Studies Quarterly


Strategic Studies Quarterly, Fall 2018, v. 12, no. 3 

o Securing the Nation One Partnership at a Time

o Confidence Building Measures for the Cyber Domain

o The Case for the US ICBM Force

o Russian Information Warfare: Implications for Deterrence Theory

o The Strategic Promise of Offensive Cyber Operations

o Soft Power in China’s Security Strategy


Military Review, September-October 2018,


Military Review, September-October 2018, v. 98, no. 5 

o Accelerating Multi-Domain Operations: Evolution of an Idea

o Weaving the Tangled Web: Military Deception in Large-Scale Combat Operations

o Bringing Order to Chaos: Combined Arms Maneuver in Large-Scale Combat Operations

o Lethal and Non-Lethal Fires: Historical Case Studies of Converging Cross-Domain Fires in Large-Scale Combat Operations

o The Long Haul: Historical Case Studies of Sustainment Operations in Large-Scale Combat Operations

17 September 2018

Air & Space Power Journal, Fall 2018,


Air & Space Power Journal, Fall 2018, v. 32, no. 3 

o Character into Action: How Officers Demonstrate Strengths with Transformational Leadership

o Multidomain Observing and Orienting: ISR to Meet the Emerging Battlespace

o Preparing for Multidomain Warfare: Lessons from Space/Cyber Operations

o An Ethical Decision-Making Tool for Offensive Cyberspace Operations

o The Other Side of the COIN

o Air Advising in Afghanistan: Building an Organization in Flight

o Artificial Intelligence: Myths and Realities


24 July 2018

SIPRI Yearbook 2018

This text summarizes the findings of SIPRI’s Yearbook 2018. As in the past, the Yearbook provides original data on world military expenditures, international arms transfers, arms production rates, the size and composition of nuclear forces, armed conflicts and multilateral peace operations. The volume also offers insight on the latest trends in 1) nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation; 2) chemical and biological security threats; 3) dual-use items and arms trade controls, and more.



22 July 2018

Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ)


o Intelligence in a Data-Driven Age

o Strategic Shaping: Expanding the Competitive Space

o The Future of the Aircraft Carrier and the Carrier Air Wing

o 568 Balls in the Air: Planning for the Loss of Space Capabilities

o Transregional Capstone Exercise: Training for Tomorrow’s Fight

o The Case for Joint Force Acquisition Reform

o U.S. Special Operations Command’s Future, by Design

o Enhancing Global Security Through Security Force Assistance

o Cooking Shows, Corollas, and Innovation on a Budget '

o Bombs, Not Broadcasts: U.S. Preference for Kinetic Strategy in Asymmetric Conflict

o Reverse Engineering Goldwater-Nichols: China’s Joint Force Reforms

o Don’t Shoot the Messenger: Demosthenes, Churchill, and the Consensus Delusion

o Defending the AEF: Combat Adaptation and Jointness in the Skies over France

o The U.S. Government’s Approach to Economic Security

Military ReviewJuly-August 2018,


o The 75th Ranger Regiment Military Intelligence Battalion Modernizing for Multi-Domain Battle

o Developing a Light Infantry-Robotic Company as a System

o Reconnaissance beyond the Coordinated Fire Line Division Warfighter Trends

o The Suwalki Gap A Proving Ground for Cluster Munitions

o A Central Asian Perspective on Russian Soft Power The View from Tashkent

o The Decades-Long “Double-Double Game” Pakistan, the United States, and the Taliban

o Many Voices Telling One Story Public Affairs Operations across Africa in Support of Combatant Commanders

o Preparing Security Force Assistance Brigades for the Complexity of Human Interaction

o Lebanese Armed Forces Implementing Instruments of National Power as Lines of Effort to Engage a Palestinian Refugee Camp

o Mexico’s Fight against Transnational Organized Crime

o China-Latin America Arms Sales Antagonizing the United States in the Western Hemisphere?


13 May 2018

Afghanistan: Conflict Metrics 2000-2018

By Anthony H. Cordesman

The U.S. has now entered its seventeenth year of war in Afghanistan, and there is no clear end to the war in sight. At present, there seems to be little prospect that a combination of Afghan government, U.S., and allied forces can defeat the Taliban and other insurgent and terrorist forces or will be defeated by them. The conflict has become a war of attrition which can drag on indefinitely, and can only be ended through some form of peace negotiation or the sudden, unexpected collapse of either Afghan government or threat forces – a transition from a war of attrition to a war of exhaustion on one side.

Selectively Surveying Official, UN, and NGO Combat Metrics

2 May 2018

Russian Social Media Influence

by Todd C. Helmus, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, Andrew Radin, Madeline Magnuson, Joshua Mendelsohn, William Marcellino, Andriy Bega, Zev Winkelman

Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe


Research Questions 
What is the scope of Russian social media campaigns? 
What are the critical ingredients to countering these campaigns? 

A RAND Corporation study examined Russian-language content on social media and the broader propaganda threat posed to the region of former Soviet states that include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, Moldova and Belarus. In addition to employing a state-funded multilingual television network, operating various Kremlin-supporting news websites, and working through several constellations of Russia-backed "civil society" organizations, Russia employs a sophisticated social media campaign that includes news tweets, nonattributed comments on web pages, troll and bot social media accounts, and fake hashtag and Twitter campaigns. Nowhere is this threat more tangible than in Ukraine, which has been an active propaganda battleground since the 2014 Ukrainian revolution. Other countries in the region look at Russia's actions and annexation of Crimea and recognize the need to pay careful attention to Russia's propaganda campaign.

26 April 2018

Blue China: Navigating the Maritime Silk Road to Europe

Policy Brief

SUMMARY
China’s Maritime Silk Road is about power and international influence, but Europeans should not overlook the importance for China of further developing its blue economy, which already represents 10 percent of China’s GDP.

The Maritime Silk Road already affects Europe in five main areas: maritime trade, shipbuilding, emerging growth niches in the blue economy, the global presence of the Chinese navy, and the competition for international influence.

On balance, the Maritime Silk Road creates more competition in Europe-China relations, but it also creates space for cooperation in the blue economy and for specific maritime security missions.

Europe should emulate China’s blue economy as an engine of growth and wealth, and encourage innovation to respond to well-funded Chinese industrial and R&D policies.
Europeans should strengthen their contribution to maintaining a strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific region and uphold their vision of a rules-based maritime order.

20 April 2018

The Land, Space, and Cyberspace Nexus: Evolution of the Oldest Military Operations in the Newest Military Domains


Over the last century, the domains of air, space, and cyberspace have joined the traditional warfighting domains of land and sea. While the doctrine for land operations is relatively mature, the doctrine for space and cyberspace continue to evolve, often in an unstructured manner. This monograph examines the relationships among these domains and how they apply to U.S. Army and joint warfighting. It concentrates on the central question: How are U.S. military operations in the newest domains of space and cyberspace being integrated with operations in the traditional domain of land? This inquiry is divided into three major sections: 

• Existing Doctrine: This section presents an overview of the current state of joint and U.S. Army doctrinal development for each of the domains of land, space, and cyberspace.

7 January 2018

Global Trends to 2035: Geo-politics and International Power


What economic, societal and political global factors will shape the world up to 2035? This publication responds by looks at eight plausible candidates, including the world’s aging population; weakening enthusiasm for globalization; continued industrial and technological revolution; climate change and resource competition; shifting power relations; new areas of state competition; information age politics; and ecological threats. The text also outlines four possible scenarios on the future of European and global stability as well as what policy options the EU could consider to help it navigate the next two decades.


6 January 2018

What If... Conceivable Crises: Unpredictable in 2017, Unmanageable in 2020?


This collection of essays focuses on eleven scenarios that may appear unlikely today, but which could come to pass in the near future. The primary aim of each text is to highlight the EU’s current strengths and weaknesses, specifically in its decision-making processes and crisis management structures. Some of the potential crises include 1) a repeat intervention by Russia in Ukraine; 2) the disintegration of Bosnia-Herzegovina; 3) the so-called Islamic State taking over an enfeebled African state; 4) the toppling of Cameroon’s government; 5) Japan acquiring nuclear weapons; and 6) India and Pakistan stumbling into another armed conflict.

5 November 2017

BEYOND THE CALIPHATE: FOREIGN FIGHTERS AND THE THREAT OF RETURNEES


As the so-called Islamic State (IS) loses territorial control of its caliphate, there is little doubt that the group or something similar will survive the worldwide campaign against it. As long as the conditions that allowed the group to exist in the first place remain, IS or something like it will survive. The threat will mutate…






18 August 2017

A Short History of Biological Warfare: From Pre-History to the 21st Century

Download 


This monograph examines the history of biological warfare and related weapons development programs. The three sections of the paper focus on 1) the period between prehistory and 1900, highlighting how resort to biological warfare in this era was rare; 2) the years from 1900 through 1945, which saw the emergence of state biological weapons programs, the most significant use of such weapons and initial international efforts to control them; and 3) biological weapon development during the Cold War and uses of biological agents by state and non-state actors up to the present day.

2 August 2017

The Quiet Decade: In the Aftermath of the Second Lebanon War, 2006-2016


This collection of essays focuses on the Lebanon War, which broke out on 12 July 2006, and its impact on Israel and Lebanon. Some of the topics covered include 1) changes in the strategic environment in Lebanon and the Middle East prior to 2006; 2) Israel's strategic approach to the war; 3) the perception of the conflict in the US; 4) the lessons the Israel Defense Forces learned from the war; 5) media discourse about the war in Israel between 2006 and 2016; 6) the political environment in Lebanon over the last decade; 7) what another Israeli war against Lebanon could look like, and more.

9 July 2017

Big Data: A Twenty-First Century Arms Race


We are living in a world awash in data. Accelerated interconnectivity, driven by the proliferation of internet-connected devices, has led to an explosion of data—big data. A race is now underway to develop new technologies and implement innovative methods that can handle the volume, variety, velocity, and veracity of big data and apply it smartly to provide decisive advantage and help solve major challenges facing companies and governments.

For policy makers in government, big data and associated technologies like machine-learning and artificial Intelligence, have the potential to drastically improve their decision-making capabilities. How governments use big data may be a key factor in improved economic performance and national security. This publication looks at how big data can maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of government and business, while minimizing modern risks. Five authors explore big data across three cross-cutting issues: security, finance, and law.

Chapter 1

In Chapter 1, “The Conflict Between Protecting Privacy and Securing Nations,” Els de Busser, a senior lecturer and senior researcher at The Hague University’s Centre of Expertise Cyber Security, explains the conflicts between the data privacy and protection laws that apply to law enforcement and intelligence agencies versus those that apply to commercial entities in the private sector. The increasing localization of privacy laws has placed strain on cross-border data flows, both for law enforcement and for economic monitors. Exacerbating the problem is the different legal approaches taken in Europe and the United States, with the former tending to adopt more holistic legal frameworks, while the latter adopts more sector-specific frameworks.

8 July 2017

Ideology in the Afghan Taliban: A new AAN report

Anand Gopal and Alex Strick van Linschoten
The full report can be downloaded here.

Kherqa-ye Sharif (the shrine of the Holy Cloak) in Kandahar. The cloak belonged to the Prophet Muhammad and was displayed to a crowd by Mullah Omar when he was declared amir ul-mumenin in the spring of 1996.

The Taleban’s ideology has transformed over the past two decades. While the movement once typified a ‘traditionalist’ Islam – that is, it sought to articulate and defend a particular concept of Islam found in southern Pashtun villages – it is now, in its insurgency phase, closer to forms of political Islam espoused in the Arab world. This does not mean that the Taleban are less conservative or authoritarian, rather that the objects of their repression and the way they frame their mission have shifted in important ways. In a major new report, AAN guest authors Anand Gopal and Alex Strick van Linschoten examine the changes as well as the continuity in the Taleban’s ideology from the 1980s to the present day. The report is the product of years of interviews, fieldwork in Afghanistan, as well as their time working with the Taliban Sources Projectarchive, a significant collection of documents relating to the Taleban movement.