6 March 2018

Deepening the India-France Maritime Partnership



C. RAJA MOHAN, DARSHANA BARUAH
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As maritime security acquires greater salience in India’s foreign policy, New Delhi is increasingly looking to leverage its strategic partnerships, particularly with Paris. Although India and France have joined forces on a number of issues since 1998, regional cooperation in the Indo-Pacific has never risen to the top of the agenda. However, this may be about to change. In response to growing geopolitical turbulence and more aggressive maritime maneuvering, both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Emmanuel Macron appear eager to expand their strategic engagement. Since Macron’s election in 2017, a series of high-level discussions between New Delhi and Paris have focused on the prospects of a stronger maritime security partnership. Whatever the immediate motivation, the ramifications could be far reaching. Bolstering their alliance is bound to move India away from the legacy of nonalignment and military isolationism, pushing it progressively toward coalition building with other powers. 

India should focus on its defence preparedness

By D.C. PATHAK

Indian Army soldiers stand guard outside an army camp in Jammu, on 10 February. India must invest in an overarching national cyber strategy, prioritise the objectives in an evolving environment and achieve synergy between different stakeholders to enable them to work together in war and peace. It is strange but not surprising that nations think only of military when compelled to plan for augmenting their protection against the adversaries. The words “defence” and “security” both mean safeguarding the country, but they are not synonymous. 

The Brands That Kowtow to China

Richard Bernstein
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A couple of years ago, a satirist on Taiwan, the democratic self-governing island that China claims as a province, created an online “Apologize to China” contest. Shortly before, an eighteen-year-old Taiwanese pop singer named Chou Tzu-yu had prompted patriotic outrage in mainland China when it was discovered that she had waved a Taiwanese flag on South Korean television, a gesture taken as disrespect for the sacrosanct One China idea. Facing furious demands that she be banned from performing in China, Chou made a video in which she tearfully begged for forgiveness for her offense, which itself aroused a good deal of dismay on Taiwan about Chinese bullying of a naive teenager. Hence the “Apologize to China” contest.

Funding Infrastructure: Why China Is Running Circles Around America

by Ellen Brown

"One Belt, One Road," China's $1 trillion infrastructure initiative, is a massive undertaking of highways, pipelines, transmission lines, ports, power stations, fiber optics, and railroads connecting China to Central Asia, Europe and Africa.  "It is the largest infrastructure project initiated by one nation in the history of the world and is designed to enable China to become the dominant economic power in the world." 

Xi Jinping Extends Power, and China Braces for a New Cold War

By JANE PERLEZ

BEIJING — Having cast aside presidential term limits, China is bracing for relations with the United States to enter a dangerous period under the continuing leadership of President Xi Jinping, intending to stand firm against President Trump and against policies it sees as attempts to contain its rise, according to Chinese analysts. Even before the announcement on Sunday that he could rule for the foreseeable future, Mr. Xi had ordered the Chinese military to counter the Pentagon with its own modernization in air, sea, space and cyber weapons, the analysts said, partly in response to Mr. Trump’s plans to revitalize American nuclear forces.

Beijing’s Vision for a Reshaped International Order

By Nadege Rolland

The “community of common destiny” (命运共同体) has emerged as one of Xi Jinping’s most favorite “diplospeak” phrases, appearing in his public speeches more than a hundred times since he first came to power in 2012. Far from a bland and well-meaning platitude, the “community” belongs to the realm of official political “formulations” (提法) that are meant to indicate the Party line. It reflects Beijing’s aspirations for a future world order, different from the existing one and more in line with its own interests and status.

Early Appearances and Concentric Circles of Expansion

China Anbang crackdown: Who might be next?

By Simon Atkinson

Despite growing so big and borrowing so much, they were seen as untouchable because of their political connections. That was until the middle of last year when, after seemingly unrestrained growth, Beijing suddenly turned up the heat on some of those giantsAnd then last week, some real action. Beijing cracked down on one of those firms - taking control of insurance and financial giant Anbang, and prosecuting the firm's head.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, will be allowed to reign forever


THE decision announced on February 25th to scrap term limits for China’s president, Xi Jinping, pierces the veil of Chinese politics. It reveals that, at a time when the ruling Communist Party is presenting China to the world as a modern, reliable and responsible state, capable of defending globalisation, the internal political system that the party monopolises is premodern, treacherous, inward-looking and brutal. It also shows that Chinese leaders’ own attempts to make the party otherwise have not got far.

How Civil Wars End

By Lise Howard and Alexandra Stark

As with most civil wars, the war in Yemen is marked by the influence of outside actors. It began in September 2014, when the Iranian-backed Houthis took over the capital Sana’a, and it might well have ended six months later, when the president fled a Houthi advance on Aden. Instead, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of ten Arab countries—supported by the United States—in an air and ground campaign against the Houthis. Since then, the war has ground on, with a new dimension of fighting opening recently between southern secessionist militias—many of which receive support from the United Arab Emirates—and government forces backed by the Saudi coalition. Since taking office, the Trump administration has increased American air strikes in Yemen six fold.

Russian Meddling: A Highly Ordered Effort to Disorder U.S. Politics


The Russian effort raised trolling to a professional level of information warfare.

Russia's ongoing goal is destabilizing the U.S. electorate by amplifying political divisions.

Moscow's tactics can be mimicked by virtually anyone with a computer.

Russia is going rogue; the US must contain it

BY ANDERS ÅSLUND

The U.S. indictment of the Internet Research Agency, or troll factory, in St. Petersburg on Feb. 16 has taken U.S.-Russian relations to a new nadir. The U.S. Department of Justice accuses the troll factory of a “conspiracy” that “had as its object impairing, obstructing and defeating the lawful governmental functions of the United States by dishonest means.” Although special counsel Robert Mueller has avoided implicating the Russian government, the Internet Research Agency obviously works for it. This must have consequences for U.S. policy on Russia.

Security Brief: McMaster on Thin Ice; Fighting Rages in Syria

BY ELIAS GROLL

By Elias Groll, with Jenna McLaughlin and Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian McMassacre? With a CNN report Thursday that President Donald Trump may be on the verge of firing National Security Adviser Lt. General H.R. McMaster, the three-star Army general might be heading for a new position back in the military. McMaster has been the target of attacks. H.R. McMaster, national security advisor, listens as U.S. President Donald Trump meets with North Korean defectors in the Oval Office of the White House on February 2, 2018 in Washington, D.C. 

America's "Chaos Strategy" in the Middle East and South Asia

By Anthony Cordesman

It does not take a great deal of vision to see that the United States has no clear strategy for any of the wars it is fighting in the Middle East and South Asia, and no clear strategy for dealing with any of the other strategic challenges in either region. The day-to-day focus of the media on some individual problem or event cannot disguise the fact that the U.S. makes decisions from day-to-day on a piecemeal basis. It lurches from issue to issue and high-level trip to trip. It wins tactical victories with no clear strategic impact or lasting impact on regional stability. It reacts in the short-term, and U.S. grand strategy is little more than the chaos dictated by external events.

Here Is How Israel's Military Dominates the Battlefield

T.S. Allen

“God is not on the side of the big battalions,” the French philosopher Voltaire famously said, “but on the side of those who shoot best.” Today, the people of Israel take Voltaire’s idea that a covenant with God is maintained through military virtue seriously. They are surrounded by hostile states with significant military power, and their survival depends on their ability to counter military quantity with quality. In The Weapon Wizards: How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower, Israeli journalists and Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reservists Yaakov Katz and Amir Bohbot argue that the key to Israel’s success has been its innovative weapons programs, founded in advanced technology.

The Myth of North Korea, the USS Pueblo, and Nuclear War

BY: MITCHELL LERNER

When the 50th anniversary of the capture of the USS Pueblo hit a few weeks ago, the nation’s eyes briefly returned to this forgotten American spy ship that had been captured in the East Sea in January 1968. For a few days, the internet was awash in stories related to this long-forgotten tragedy. Some described the terrible consequences for the 82 crewmen who were beaten and tortured for almost a year in DPRK prison camps.[1]Other articles attempted to draw lessons from the 1968 crisis that could be applied to today’s situation.[2]Others reminded readers that the DPRK still proudly held the ship, which has become a prominent tourist attraction.[3] But one fairly new and exciting theme in particular echoed across the social media landscape: the idea that the attack had come close to sparking a nuclear war. 

We Are Still A Sitting Duck For Russian Hacking

Robert Kuttner

When Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to use front organizations to leak confidential emails from the Hillary Clinton campaign and deploy bots and troll farms to rev up domestic hate groups and divide progressives, this was nothing less than an act of war. U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that additional attacks are coming in 2018 and 2020. But more than a year later, America’s response still leaves much to be desired. 

France's Advantage Over Germany


Though Germany is currently Europe's largest country by population, demographic trends indicate that France will overtake its neighbor before 2060.

While Berlin will experience changes due to a loss in population and aging, its current monetary policies will continue to provide a modicum of prosperity in the future.

The shift in influence from Berlin to Paris will not precipitate any conflict due to a recent history of closer reintegration and aging populations in both countries.

Why data science is simply the new astrology

Karthik Shashidhar

It all started some six years ago, when I was in the middle of switching careers and thus had a fair bit of time on my hands. My wife Priyanka (who, incidentally, also writes a column for this website) suggested that I use this time to learn astrology. At the outset, I’d been taken aback, and found the suggestion bizarre; for I’ve never been religious or superstitious, or shown any sort of inclination to believe in astrology. Yes, there was this one time when I had helped set up a numerology stall for a school exhibition, but even that wasn’t particularly serious. 

Silicon Valley and Washington Need to Learn to Work Together for Cybersecurity, Experts Say

Erin Mundahl

Technology is changing the way that we live today. It is a simple premise, one reiterated frequently by countless Silicon Valley CEOs and entrepreneurs with new ideas. For the U.S. government, and especially American defense, these technological changes are of ever increasing importance. The 2018 National Defense Authorization Act passed late last year addresses some of these changes and moves towards an understanding of cyber warfare as its own field of combat, much like land, sea, and air. Even these changes may not go far enough to address the security threats of the 21st century, say many technology experts, who recently discussed necessary changes to the Defense Department’s supply chain, workforce, and operating procedures at an event co-sponsored by the R Street Institute and the George Mason National Security Institute.

Is it time? Ending the Military’s Reliance on GPS


Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), specifically satellite-based position, navigation and timing (PNT) constellations have been available for decades. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) started fielding the first GNSS, Global Positioning System (GPS), in 1973 to facilitate precision guidance for targeting and delivery of munitions. GPS has since moved well beyond military use, becoming a ubiquitous part of the global environment. Governments, people, economies, and infrastructures are all fully intertwined with satellite PNT. At the same time, military, economic, and scientific experts are aware of the Achilles Heel that will always plague the system – simple interference through jamming, spoofing or meaconing. Is it time for another navigation option?

How the Pentagon Devours the Budget

By William D. Hartung

Imagine for a moment a scheme in which American taxpayers were taken to the cleaners to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars and there was barely a hint of criticism or outrage. Imagine as well that the White House and a majority of the politicians in Washington, no matter the party, acquiesced in the arrangement. In fact, the annual quest to boost Pentagon spending into the stratosphere regularly follows that very scenario, assisted by predictions of imminent doom from industry-funded hawks with a vested interest in increased military outlays.

THE MILITARY IS RELYING TOO HEAVILY ON SPECIAL OPS FORCES. MATTIS MUST END THAT.

David Maxwell
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At a recent special operations symposium in Tampa, Florida—home of the U.S. Special Operations Command—a senior Marine commander said he was concerned that America was too often going to the special operations “well” to address its military challenges.

Unfortunately, he is correct.

Lt. Gen. William Beydler, the commander of Marine forces for all of the U.S. Central Command, America’s busiest war-fighting command, rightly noted that while the American people and leaders now have an enormous respect and fascination for units like the Navy SEALs, Army Green Berets, and Army Rangers, it might be leading the nation to neglect other capabilities.

The False Assumptions Fueling America’s Endless War

by Erik Goepner

America’s war on terror has now entered its seventeenth year. The U.S. has invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and conducted military operations in Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, and the Philippines. More recently, four military members died in Niger during an ambush, suggesting the war on terror continues to widen. The war has cost the lives of nearly 7,000 service members and between $1.8 and $4 trillion. Despite the heavy toll in blood and treasure, most Americans seem content for the war to continue. Polling indicates 70 percent of Americans believe an attack that will kill “large numbers of lives” is somewhat or very likely in the near future, just under six in ten say Islamic fundamentalism is a critical and enduring threat to the country, and 41 percent think the U.S. is winning the war (as opposed to 17 percent who think the terrorists are).1

Military Force Structure: Trade-Offs, Trade-Offs, Trade-Offs

By MARK CANCIAN

Mark Cancian, a member of the Breaking Defense Board of Contributors, knows budgets. He used to help build the defense budget at the Office of Management and Budget, the largely unheralded center of federal fiscal power. So when he picks apart the budget deal Congress recently approved (or any other one) you should pay attention. He’s doing it right here in this op-ed written for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, so read on! The Editor

Narrative Warfare

By Ajit Maan

“…the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” Sun Tzu (544-496 BC)

While the art of non-kinetic warfare is as old as the hills, the alacrity and multi-dimensional strategy of the attacks generated by adversaries of the U.S. and her allies to create psychological susceptibility to narratives that have been weaponized is new.

Our superior conventional kinetic capacity has promoted the recourse of our adversaries to irregular, often indirect, forms of conflict. And while our superior military can, in some cases, prevent the escalation of hostilities to direct modes of confrontation, it may be counter-productive in the influence wars we are in now if the kinetics do not serve a narrative strategy.

5 March 2018

How India is running out of strategic options with Pakistan

By Lt Gen H S Panag 

Since 1945, nuclear weapons have been used only as a deterrent and, in terms of military theory, are “unusable” in war. Wars are fought to achieve a political aim which, empirically, has been to impose “peace on own terms”. To achieve this, military defeat of the adversary is necessary, and which, at a perceived threshold, brings the nuclear deterrent into play. Thus the probability of nations armed with nuclear weapons to engage in a decisive full scale war is very low. To achieve their political aims they are likely to exploit a combination of the plethora of options available lower down in the spectrum of conflict.

Why Pakistan on FATF list is no reason for India to rejoice

PRAVEEN SHEKHAR

A meeting of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) that was held in Paris concluded on February 23. During a plenary session of the FATF meet it was decided that Pakistan should be put on the "grey list" again to keep a watch on the rogue nation for not complying with the norms to check financing of terrorism. Over the next four months, Pakistan is expected to comply with certain stipulated conditions failing which it will find mention in FATF's formal statement. The neighbouring country was on the watch-list between 2012 and 2015 but only for money laundering. This time, however, Pakistan will be monitored for its compliance with anti-money laundering and Combating Finance of Terrorism regulations.

Pakistan’s Shields Suddenly Step Aside, Placing It on Terrorism Listing


By MARIA ABI-HABIB and SALMAN MASOOD

NEW DELHI — During the debate last week over a United States-sponsored measure to throw Pakistan onto a global terrorism-financing watchlist, it appeared that Saudi Arabia and China were going to quickly shut it all down. The Pakistani foreign minister sounded a triumphant note. “Grateful to friends who helped,” Foreign Minister Khawaja M. Asif posted on Twitter.Just two days later, on Friday, Pakistan’s relief turned to alarm at the news that those two close allies had withdrawn their support, making it inevitable that Pakistan would be added in June to the “gray list” of the Financial Action Task Force, a global body created to fight terrorism financing and money laundering.

Things Are No Better in Afghanistan

By Daniel DePetris

On November 28, 2017, U.S. Commander Gen. John Nicholson delivered a remarkable briefing to the Pentagon press corps on the Trump administration’s new Afghanistan policy. The general was so upbeat about the progress that he witnessed on the battlefield that you could be forgiven for thinking the U.S. was just a few months away from celebrating complete and total victory. Nicholson beamed with confidence that the new war plan was a “game-changer” and a turning point against the Taliban. The “momentum is now with Afghan security forces,” he declared, and with just a little more time, the Taliban will soon realize that their only option is reconciliation with the Afghan government.

Why Did China Pull Support for Pakistan at the Financial Action Task Force?

By Umair Jamal

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global money-laundering watchdog, will place Pakistan on its terrorist financing watchlist — the so-called grey list — later this year. The Pakistani Prime Minister’s Advisor on Finance Miftah Ismail has confirmed that Pakistan is going to be officially placed on FATF’s watch list in June, when the forum meets for its next scheduled meeting. China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, which during the initial phase of the meeting resisted U.S. pressure to place Pakistan on the list of states that lack effective regulations to combat terrorism financing, withdrew their support during the final phase, allowing the motion to go through successfully.

TAPI Moves Into Afghanistan, Taliban Promise to Protect the Project

By Catherine Putz

On Friday, representatives from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India gathered in Herat to mark the start of work on the Afghan portion of the TAPI pipeline. It was another large celebration of, in the best case, incremental progress. On Twitter, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said of Herat and the project, “A new chapter of economic growth and regional connectivity starts right here in the economic and cultural hub of #Afghanistan.” Ghani was joined by Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, and Indian Minister of State for External Affairs M.J. Akbar. Gen. John Nicholson, commander of U.S. Forces Afghanistan and NATO’s Resolute Support Mission, also attended the ceremony.

Youth Unemployment: The Middle East's Ticking Time Bomb


With labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa swamped due to a baby boom, countries in the region will continue to face the acute challenge of massive youth unemployment. Though each state struggles with its own circumstances, most countries will face daunting hurdles as they try to build strong private sectors. Even if these states do foster more robust private sectors, they may not be able to mitigate the economic hardship when it hits their citizens, due to the uncontrollable nature of the free market. 

Bhutan, China to hold boundary talks next month

by Jyoti Malhotra 

Bhutan and China will hold the 25th round of their boundary talks in Thimphu next month. The teams will be led by Bhutanese Foreign Minister Lyonpo Damcho Dorji and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou. The boundary talks were cancelled last year in the wake of the Doklam crisis, when Indian and Chinese troops faced off in the remote Himalayan plateau for 73 days in territory claimed by both Bhutan and China. The standoff ended in August with troops from both sides withdrawing to their previous positions and China removing road-building equipment.

Trump's South Asia Strategy and Afghanistan's Political Stalemate: A Way Forward

By Ata Mohammad Noor

In the days and months leading up to the 2014 presidential election in Afghanistan, uncertainty abounded about the future of Afghanistan’s fledgling democracy and the gains made in different spheres with the support of our international partners. Despite the national feeling of doom and gloom, the people of Afghanistan defied security threats, turned up in great numbers, and voted in the elections for their candidates of choice. It was a spectacular manifestation of the popular desire among the Afghan people to exercise their democratic rights to vote and choose a new leader for the country.

Will Trump Really Start a Broad Trade War?

By John Cassidy, March 2, 2018

When Donald Trump’s trade advisers complain about China dumping certain products, such as steel and aluminum, in other countries at below-market prices, they have a point. In the past fifteen years, Chinese production of steel and aluminum has skyrocketed, creating excess capacity in world markets, and Chinese firms have been widely accused of pricing below cost to clear their inventory. U.S. producers have struggled to compete with cheap imports. Many plants have closed down, and thousands of workers have lost their jobs.
The Trump Administration isn’t the only Western government to be concerned about the issue. Last year, the European Union slapped tariffs of up to 28.5 per cent on certain types of steel pipes and tubes made in China after finding that they were being exported at artificially low prices. “This is just one example of the Commission using the EU trade policy toolbox to tackle problems related to the dumping of steel,” the European Commission explained in a public statement. “The EU currently has an unprecedented number of trade defence measures in place targeting unfair imports of steel products, with a total of 43 anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures, 20 of which are on products originating from China.”

Italy’s Election Is a Shipwreck

BY LUIGI ZINGALES
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A few weeks ago, an Italian magazine asked me to illustrate graphically how I see Italy from abroad. I am incompetent at drawing, but an image instantly popped in my mind: the Costa Concordiashipwreck in the Mediterranean Sea in 2012. Italy, too, is a beautiful ship slowly sinking because of the ineptitude of its captain — or captains, as it were. Surprisingly, this is not the view most Italians have of their own country. Most recognize the Italian ship is taking water on board, and that in theory it could sink by defaulting on its public debt. But Italians have faith that the Stellone Italiano (the Italian lucky star) will save them at the last minute, just as it has historically bailed out the Italian soccer team in World Cup matches.

Amphibious Operations: Lessons of Past Campaigns for Today’s PLA

By Kevin McCauley

Amphibious operations are important components of current PLA doctrinal writings and exercises. With no recent experience in amphibious warfare, PLA military science examines foreign and historical operations for guiding principles. PLA histories highlight amphibious operations against Xiamen, Kinmen and Hainan in 1949 and 1950, the last of which the PLA views as its first large-scale sea crossing experience. These nascent amphibious operations provided amphibious warfare experience and lessons learned for the intended invasion of Taiwan, as well as the PLA’s first joint operation to seize the Yijiangshan Islands in 1954-55.

Globalization Has Created a Chinese Monster

BY EMILE SIMPSON

On Sunday, the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee recommended ending the two-term limit on the presidency, paving the way for President Xi Jinping to stay in office indefinitely. This surely marks the end of an era — and not just for China, but also for the West. For the West, the era in question started with the end of the Cold War, as old enemies became “emerging markets.” China had already started opening its markets to foreign investment since 1978 under Deng Xiaoping’s reforms. But only in the 1990s did the private sector take off there, and Western firms promptly rushed in to profit from the breakneck speed of Chinese economic growth.

Echoes of Mao as Xi Jinping Ends Term Limits

By Richard McGregor

The announcement on Sunday that China will amend its state constitution to remove the two-term limit for the presidency has seemingly cleared the way for just that. Under the old constitutional provisions, Xi would have been required to step aside as president in early 2023, when his second five-year term would come to an end. Xi would not necessarily have had to cede power, however. There are no terms limits for one of the other key positions he occupies, that of secretary of the communist party, the office in which true power resides in China. In that respect, the position of president (head of state) is just being bought into line with that of the ruling party. As recently as the early 1990s, different figures held the office of president and party secretary.

The Real China Challenge: Imperial Overstretch

Gordon G. Chang

IN INTRODUCING its new National Security Strategy, President Trump’s White House identified China as a “revisionist” power, a “rival” and “competitor.” Throughout its sixty-eight pages, the document catalogues Beijing’s hostile behavior and suggests that Chinese influence in America and elsewhere is “malign.” It is right to do so. Fortunately for America and contrary to Washington conventional wisdom, the mighty-looking Chinese state is, in reality, particularly vulnerable at this moment. For one thing, its slowing economy is on the verge of a debt crisis. At the same time, Beijing, largely because of the expansive vision of its ruler, Xi Jinping, is overstretched. China’s provocative acts are alienating other states, strengthening a growing coalition against Beijing. Xi’s relentless pursuit of absolute control at home has weakened Chinese institutions. The Chinese people are restless.

China and the Geopolitics of Knowledge: Winning the Long Game

By Dawisson Belém Lopes

An important piece of news went practically unnoticed in January 2018: according to Nature, China surpassed the United States in the number of articles published on Elsevier’s Scopus, one of the world’s top scientific databases. Although on average, Chinese publications are not as influential as North American and European studies, they do help set trends for many disciplines, and might well push the Western world into a peer-to-peer dialogue that would not be happening otherwise. As recent figures show, there has been a sharp increase of 37 percent in the number of citations of China-based authors in academic articles over the last five years. That serves as a telling proxy indicator for who is now massively investing in knowledge and will, in all probability, harvest the power of that knowledge in the future.

What’s Behind Indonesia’s China Drone Buy?

By Prashanth Parameswaran

On February 25, reports surfaced citing sources within Indonesia’s military as confirming that the Southeast Asian state had agreed to acquire four drones from China. Though the reports are merely a reiteration of what Indonesian defense officials had said last year, they nonetheless reinforce Jakarta’s efforts to boost its capabilities in this respect and the inroads that Chinese drones are making in some key markets. As I have been noting in these pages, Indonesian defense officials have been signaling the need to boost the country’s drone capabilities, recognizing that the country does not have nearly enough vessels and aircraft to fully monitor its vast airspace and coastline. So it is no surprise that we have seen Jakarta aim to make purchases in this regard from countries such as the United States (See: “New Indonesia Drones Spotlight US-ASEAN Maritime Security Initiative”).

Making Sense of Chinese Reactions to the US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review

By Raymond Wang

The Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) was a break from its predecessors in many ways. It envisions an expanded role of nuclear weapons in U.S. military doctrine, the development of low-yield weapons — specifically a low-yield SLBM — and the removal of 2010 NPR language that called for maintaining strategic stability with China. Unsurprisingly, it has elicited vociferous responses from Chinese state media, government officials and netizens alike. There have already been sound analyses on the issue of low-yield SLBMs and the Trump administration’s justifications for it from both American and Russian perspectives.

How Civil Wars End

By Lise Howard and Alexandra Stark

As with most civil wars, the war in Yemen is marked by the influence of outside actors. It began in September 2014, when the Iranian-backed Houthis took over the capital Sana’a, and it might well have ended six months later, when the president fled a Houthi advance on Aden. Instead, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of ten Arab countries—supported by the United States—in an air and ground campaign against the Houthis. Since then, the war has ground on, with a new dimension of fighting opening recently between southern secessionist militias—many of which receive support from the United Arab Emirates—and government forces backed by the Saudi coalition. Since taking office, the Trump administration has increased American air strikes in Yemen six fold.

Shale to the Chief: Russia and Saudi Arabia’s Great Oil Game

By Nicholas Trickett

Ever since Saudi Arabia began coordinating OPEC oil production cuts with Russia in November, 2016, observers have scrutinized the two oil giants’ relationship for signs of a strategic rationale. King Salman’s first visit to Moscow early last October was perceived by many as proof of serious change. Writing for the National Interest, Samuel Ramani went as far as to call the visit “a sweeping transformation of Russia’s diplomatic conduct in the Middle East and strategic objectives in a critically important region of the world.” The rhetoric of strategic partnership has only ratcheted up with news that Saudi Aramco was mulling work with the Russia Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) to help a group of Russian and Chinese investors buy Aramco’s upcoming IPO.

Russia's Mercenary Debacle in Syria

By Neil Hauer

On the night of February 7, a Kurdish-held oil field in northeastern Syria came under sudden attack by forces allied with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Heavy U.S. air strikes and artillery fire repelled the assault, with initial reports suggesting that at least 100 pro-government fighters were killed in the span of three hours. The next week, information began to emerge that many of those killed were Russian mercenaries contracted to the Wagner Group, a private military company with close ties to the Kremlin. A pair of Russian-language audio recordings described 200 dead Wagner fighters; other sources gave casualty figures as high as 600. Although these figures sounded absurd at first, with other Russian sources estimating only 20 to 25 dead, corroborating evidence increasingly backed a casualty tally in the hundreds. Former Wagner fighters with links to those killed reported between 80 and 100 dead and 200 injured, while Russian hospitals treated hundreds of wounded. A Chechen-language recording from Syria claimed that 170 of 200 Wagner fighters involved in the attack were dead. Three hundred casualties now appears not only a plausible but a probable figure.

Sundar Pichai has no decision-making power beyond Google: Report


While Google’s rise has helped its parent company Alphabet break all revenue records, Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai neither receives any financial information about Alphabet’s “Other Bets” nor has any decision-making power over them. In newly-released government documents to the US Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and reported by CNBC late Monday, Alphabet has published details about the structure of its overall businesses. “Pichai also does not have authority over Alphabet’s overall resource allocation to Google,” the report said, quoting from the Alphabet’s letter to SEC.

THE DARK WEB IS EVEN BIGGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT: 3,000 DATA BASES WITH 200 MILLION UNIQUE ACCOUNTS FOUND; AND CYBER VILLAINS…HARDER TO IDENTIFY


A writer who goes by the ‘handle’ Wagas, posted a February 23, 2018 article to the security/technology website, HackRead.com, about the ever-expanding Dark Web. As Wagas notes, “the Dark Web is a strange place, where one can conduct all sorts of illegal activities like: selling illegal drugs, weapons/firearms, social security numbers, documents, and stolen data. Recently,” Wagas noted, “the social engineering experts at the breach notification website, Hacked-DB, discovered a massive trove of data, containing log in credentials of millions of users on the Dark Web.”

No Facebook or Twitter? You’re Probably a Spy.


Bottom Line: A spy’s tradecraft must constantly evolve because of the rapid changes of the digital age – especially the tools and skills required to maintain a legend, or cover identity. Virtual recordkeeping, modern surveillance technology and the vast amounts of a person’s background accessible on open-source platforms such as social media are affecting intelligence operatives’ ability to operate covertly overseas.

CYBER TALENT WANTED: Military, Intelligence Community Strive to Retain Cyber Workforces

By Yasmin Tadjdeh

The private sector has for years lured cyber talent away from the government with promises of higher compensation. To counter this, leaders within the military and intelligence community are implementing a slew of programs that they believe will boost retention. The Army is closely monitoring retention rates for its cyber workforce, including officers, enlisted soldiers and civilians, said Todd Boudreau, deputy commandant of the U.S. Army Cyber School at the Cyber Center of Excellence in Fort Gordon, Georgia.

Brussels now flanked by mortal enemies on four sides


In the first half of the 20th century, the German armies foundered by fighting on two fronts at the same time. Brussels is now in a four front war that threatens the EU's very existence. Folklore, and a good deal of the historical evidence, has it that the bane of the German armies in the first half of the 20th century was the desperate, and ultimately insurmountable, problem of fighting their wars on two fronts at the same time. The Brussels elite seems oblivious to the present, never mind the past. But even the myopic Eurocrats must be starting to panic at the emerging political geography of contemporary Europe.

4 March 2018

Pressing the Constitutional Reset button in the Maldives An intervention plan for New Delhi


Nitin Pai

Neither the UPA government nor the Modi government seem to care that a strategic Indian Ocean neighbour has been taken over by an autocratic regime so confident of Chinese support that it feels emboldened to go beyond merely thumbing its nose at New Delhi. It’s poking us in the eye. The case for a hard Indian intervention is so strong, the international context so conducive, the military equation so overwhelmingly favourable that we must ask: if not now, when? Will we wait for construction of a foreign naval base to start at Feydhoo Finolhu near Male before we decide to intervene? What use are grand conferences, declarations of being “an Indian Ocean power”, “a net-security provider” or vasudaiva kutumbakam, when governments in New Delhi are disinclined to forcefully protect India’s own core interests? [INI]