6 November 2014

'Finlandization' Abandons Ukraine

Author: Mark P. Lagon, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Human Rights
November 3, 2014 

With the Sept. 5 ceasefire tenuously holding in eastern Ukraine, discussion surrounding the conflict has refocused on the need for a negotiated settlement to prevent a resurgence of violence. Proposals concerning the "Finlandization," or neutralization, of Ukraine have received increasing attention, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has made plain that Kiev's membership in NATO is incompatible with his regime's conception of Russian security interests. However, proponents of a non-aligned Ukraine misinterpret the Finland model; where control over Helsinki's foreign policy alone in theory may have appeased the Politburo, the Putin government would ignore Ukraine's domestic developments at great risk. Even as a neutral state, an economically prosperous and democratically flourishing Ukraine would threaten the Putin regime by exemplifying a viable alternative to Putin's authoritarian-statist paradigm. If the transatlantic community accepts the Finlandization of Ukraine as an exit from the current crisis, it will be a sacrifice of Western values in order to implement a policy destined to fail, and at the cost of a successful Ukrainian democracy. 

The debate surrounding the Ukraine crisis has centered on Russia's objections to NATO enlargement to the point of marginalizing other salient issues. John Mearsheimer'sSeptember article in Foreign Affairs illustrated this misperception in postulating a scenario in which by abstaining from further NATO expansion, the West could shift "gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow." While Mearsheimer outlines Moscow's perception that the alliance's expansion threatens Russia's "core strategic interests," his vision of neutralization misinterprets the historical lessons of the Finnish experience, ignoring the potential for a nonaligned Ukraine to undermine hold on power. 

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