27 April 2015

I would argue that a mix of benign and non-so-benign intents better explains the emerging situation

HAPPYMON JACOB

New Delhi is steadily losing its northwestern plot and is increasingly looking like a mere spectator to the grand geopolitical churning in the region, clueless and directionless. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani would be visiting India soon and Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to visit China next month, but these high-level visits are unlikely to improve New Delhi’s diminishing influence in the region. Ghani visit is primarily to mollify New Delhi’s feelings of hurt and Modi’s China visit would hardly have any regional implications, even as it might be significant in the Sino-Indian bilateral context. In short, bilateralism seems to have trumped India’s geostrategic future in the region. 

Ghani’s upcoming visit to Delhi 

Ashraf Ghani is no Hamid Karzai, and he has made it abundantly clear by making his first overseas trip to Pakistan Army’s Head Quarters in Rawalpindi whose intelligence agency – the ISI - was consistently blamed by the previous Afghan leadership, under Karzai, as the major spoiler of peace in Afghanistan. The Afghan change of stance vis-à-vis Pakistan is clearly a pragmatic decision, and Kabul does not have too many choices. After Ghani visited Rawalpindi late last year, Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah visited New Delhi in March this year, a visit that was nothing more than to console New Delhi. 

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