9 July 2016

Fighting ISIS as It Shifts Tactics

JULY 5, 2016

The Islamic State extended its bloody rampage with a suicide bombing in Baghdad on Sunday that killed more than 200 people, the deadliest attack on the city since the 2003 American-led invasion. On Monday, three smaller attacks on the Saudi Arabian cities of Jidda, Medina and Qatif were also linked to the terrorist group. The recent violence, including in Turkey and possibly in Bangladesh, may indicate some adjustment in the group’s tactics as its fortunes decline on the battlefields.

The multipronged assault reflects the Islamic State’s growing desperation as it loses the territory it seized in Iraq and Syria. An American-led coalition has recaptured 20 percent of the ISIS-held land in Syria and 47 percent inIraq, including Falluja, which was taken back by Iraq’s beleaguered government last month.

After the Baghdad attack, the government’s response was not encouraging. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced plans to speed up the execution of ISIS members and some weak security measures. If Mr. Abadi cannot find ways to secure Baghdad, pressure may grow to move army units to the capital from the battlefield, where they are fighting ISIS. This would undercut plans by the American-led coalition, including the Iraqi Army, to intensify efforts to retake Mosul, a major city in the north that has been in ISIS’ hands for two years.

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The latest attacks reveal an enemy that is adapting, becoming more sophisticated than Al Qaeda, and nurturing a far-flung network of operations, including in the West. A complex response is needed, but John Brennan, the Central Intelligence Agency director, said last month that “we still have a ways to go before we’re able to say that we have made some significant progress against them.”

Bombing isn’t the only recourse. Improved intelligence, coordinated operations to find terrorists before they strike and better strategies to counter extremist propaganda are equally needed. A central problem remains the tensions among countries in the region that have prevented a fully coordinated response to the Islamic State threat. The recent attack on Istanbul’s airport, which killed 44 people and authorities said was the work of ISIS, should persuade Turkey, a NATO member, to get more involved in the anti-ISIS fight, especially in Syria.

The Americans need to work more closely with Iran, the leading Shiite Muslim country, against the Islamic State in Iraq. Iran on Tuesdaycondemned the attacks against Saudi Arabia, its Sunni-majority rival, as well as those against Shiite Muslims, and called for a united response to terrorism. Testy relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia have also undercut a coherent regional response to the Islamic State, which wants to destabilize both governments. The risk is especially acute for Mr. Abadi, who has long struggled to hold on to power against challenges from other Shiite leaders. Sunday’s attack brought calls for his resignation from a population fed up with violence.

Experts say the Islamic State will wither as it loses more territory. But even then, it will no doubt continue to stage occasional attacks in Iraq and elsewhere. If Mr. Abadi and other Iraqi leaders are to protect their people, they will need the support of Iraq’s Sunni population, which remains marginalized and susceptible to Islamic State propaganda. That is a central political and security problem Iraq’s leaders have persistently failed to remedy.

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