10 December 2016

REVITALISING RUSSIA-US RELATIONS — TRUMP FACTOR

Nalin Kumar Mohapatra

If Trump implements some of the election speeches into official policies, it could certainly ease tension and will reduce the “New Cold War” syndrome. The Russian President in his State of the Nation Address on December 1, 2016, as reproduced by the kremlin.ru, has also made a pointed reference towards “re-building” positive relationship with the United States by stating that “we need friends”

The recent victory of Donald Trump as American President raised hope that the relations between Moscow and Washington will be back to “normal” as the President-elect, Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin share a common concern towards a number of global issues. Both the countries demonstrated the same optimism in the first half in the nineties of the last century when Russian policymakers considered America as their “natural partner”. The recent victory of Trump raises such a hope that both the countries can “mend” their fences and “reboot” their relationship to a new height. This optimism is emanating despite the fact that both the countries are having divergent opinions on various international as well as bilateral issues like NATO’s growing expansion in the Eastern Europe, deployment of missile warheads by both the parties aiming against each others, growing suspicion on part of Moscow what it claims regime changes by Washington in the post-Soviet space keeping its strategic interests in mind and Syrian question. Last but not the least is the West’s financial sanctions against

Russia. Despite all these differences, both the countries have certain common concerns which can bring peace and stability both at regional and global levels. 

On the question of fight against radicalism, both the countries have some common understandings. As both Moscow and Washington are experiencing the menace of radicalism at their respective sovereign spaces, it is a historic opportunity for both of them to strengthen their bilateral relations to fight against the evil forces. Trump during his campaign for the presidential race argued for taking strong actions against the radical forces. This gives both the countries an opportunity to fight against the common enemies, the dreaded Islamic State (ISIS). In an interview to Wall Street Journal in the aftermath of his election victory as President, Trump stated that he will “positively cooperate with Russia in Syria in taming ISIS”. Similarly, during their telephonic conversation as reported by kremlin.ru website both the leaders agreed to “work together in the struggle against the number one common enemy — international terrorism and extremism”.

Considerable sections of policy analysts are of the opinion that Washington under President Trump will adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy towards Russia. This they argue by sensing some trends. For instance, prior to Trump’s election as President, one of his key aides, Carter Page, visited Moscow in August and called for a “relook” at American foreign policy towards Russia. Page even hinted at “scrapping” financial sanctions against Russia. One may recall here that prior to economic sanctions, America used to be one of the largest trading partners of Russia. If there is growing trade cooperation between the two countries, it will certainly reduce Moscow’s unilateral dependence on Beijing, and may enhance better cooperation between the two nations.

During his election campaign, Trump consistently prioritised domestic issues concerning Americans; be it in the sphere of creating jobs or allocating public goods. He has also favoured at protecting American economic interests, etc. One may also argue here that Trump will focus less on intervention in different parts of the world which is part of American foreign policy. During the Presidential debate, the transcript of which was as reproduced by Los Angeles Times, Trump disdained external intervention carried out by the NATO. He stated that “NATO could be obsolete”. Taking a dig at member countries of this body, he further highlighted that “we are defending them (NATO member states), and they should at least be paying us what they are supposed to be paying by treaty and contract”. If Trump implements some of the election speeches into official policies, it could certainly ease tension and will reduce the “New Cold War” syndrome. The Russian President in his State of the Nation Address on December 1, 2016, as reproduced by the kremlin.ru, has also made a pointed reference towards “re-building” positive relationship with the United States by stating that “we need friends.” The positive gesture on the part of Putin will certainly “reshape” Russia-US relations.

Another arena, where US-Russia relations can be strengthened is in the energy sector. As reported by the Russian official media RT, way back in 2012, when the second phase of Eastern Siberia Pacific Pipeline (ESPO) was completed, the head of Transneft stated that American market is getting “35 per cent of oil through Kozimo terminal”. One may recall here that in the post-1991 phase, Russia sought greater American participation in the Siberian energy sector and even sought latter’s technologies to explore energy from this region. The “US-Russia Energy and Energy Efficiency Cooperation” published by the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs in 2012 highlighted major areas of cooperation between these two countries in the domain of energy. The report envisaged the creation of “joint grids”, “clean energy”, “joint cooperation between the State-owned Russian energy firm Gazprom, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)”, etc. Despite the bilateral bonhomie over energy, there are certain areas, where energy is becoming one of the focal points of conflict between Moscow and Washington. It has been argued that the Cold War trajectories between the Soviet Union and Russia were largely shaped by control over energy resources and its distribution. Trump, on the other hand, is approaching the question of energy in different ways than his predecessors. In an interesting Press release published in his personal website, he stated that “energy independence” will be the keystone of American energy policy. He has also criticised the OPEC and present American energy policy by stating that it “weakened our security by keeping us reliant on foreign sources of energy”. The main objective of Trump’s energy policy, in fact, focuses on curtailing American involvement in different energy regions and achieving “self-sufficiency” in energy production. If Trump implements this policy after assuming office, then it will certainly reduce global tension in different parts of the world. Be it in Africa or in Latin America, the US is at loggerheads with both China and Russia. Even the phrase “New Great Game” came up when Bill Clinton took some extra interest in the Caspian region which was later resented by Russia. Strategic analysts are of the opinion that the root causes of the current Syrian crisis can be attributed to pipeline diplomacy and controlling energy reserves in which both the external powers (Moscow and Washington) have vital stakes. By reorienting its external energy policy America can certainly assuage the feeling of Russia that its energy interest both at its backyard (Central Asia and the Caspian region) as well in the Arctic (where both the powers are in rivalry with each other) and also in the West Asian region can be protected without turning it into a “Zero-Sum game”. One may add here one footnote that being a “Rentier state”, Russia depends substantially on energy for securing external revenue which sustains its economy. Lesser American interest in these energy fields will remove one major source of irritants. Though energy prices at international market are quite low at present, one expects it to bounce back in the near future. Trump’s move in the energy sector may pay rich dividend to Russia.

In cementing relationship between these two Cold War foes, India can play a positive role in bringing Russia and the US much closer. New Delhi shares a positive relationship with both the countries and shares many of their common concerns like fight against radicalism. Already both Moscow and Washington share a common position on New Delhi’s entry into Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG). Hope there will be no major changes at the policy-level under Trump Administration. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign policy of building “bridges” with both the countries is also paying rich dividend to India. In this context, one may envisage a trilateral strategic triangle involving Delhi Moscow Washington that can contribute to the stabilisation of global politics to a significant level.

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